North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments: Part III: Assessment of Twenty-First-Century Projections*
a Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
b Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
c School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York
d Department of Geological Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas
e Department of Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
f Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska
g Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California
h International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii
i Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
j Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences Department, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
k Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, Virginia
l Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
m Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California
n Department of Marine Sciences, University of Connecticut, Avery Point, Connecticut
o Wyle Science, Technology and Engineering, College Park, Maryland
p Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, Maryland
q NOAA/Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, Maryland
r Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri
s Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut
t Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
u National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado
v Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Florida
w Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
| Abstract |
|---|
In part III of a three-part study on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, the authors examine projections of twenty-first-century climate in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission experiments. This paper summarizes and synthesizes results from several coordinated studies by the authors. Aspects of North American climate change that are examined include changes in continental-scale temperature and the hydrologic cycle, extremes events, and storm tracks, as well as regional manifestations of these climate variables. The authors also examine changes in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and North American intraseasonal to decadal variability, including changes in teleconnections to other regions of the globe. Projected changes are generally consistent with those previously published for CMIP3, although CMIP5 model projections differ importantly from those of CMIP3 in some aspects, including CMIP5 model agreement on increased central California precipitation. The paper also highlights uncertainties and limitations based on current results as priorities for further research. Although many projected changes in North American climate are consistent across CMIP5 models, substantial intermodel disagreement exists in other aspects. Areas of disagreement include projections of changes in snow water equivalent on a regional basis, summer Arctic sea ice extent, the magnitude and sign of regional precipitation changes, extreme heat events across the northern United States, and Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity.
Keywords: North America, Climate change, Climate prediction, Climate models
Received: May 6, 2013; Final Form: November 22, 2013
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