On the Existence of Extended Range Predictability

Edward N. Lorenz Dept. of Meteorology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass. 02139

Search for other papers by Edward N. Lorenz in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

On the basis of five years of Northern Hemisphere isobaric height data, states of the atmosphere separated by 12 days or less are found on the average to resemble each other more closely than randomly selected states, even after adjustment for seasonal trend has been made. The existence of partial predictability of instantaneous weather patterns at least 12 days in advance is thereby confirmed.

Abstract

On the basis of five years of Northern Hemisphere isobaric height data, states of the atmosphere separated by 12 days or less are found on the average to resemble each other more closely than randomly selected states, even after adjustment for seasonal trend has been made. The existence of partial predictability of instantaneous weather patterns at least 12 days in advance is thereby confirmed.

Save