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Persistence and Recurrence Probabilities of Cloud-Free and Cloudy Lines-of-Sight Through the Atmosphere

Iver A. LundAir Force Cambridge Research Laboratories, Bedford, Mass. 01730

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Abstract

A total of 13,215 high-contrast, whole-sky photographs were studied to derive estimates of cloud-free and cloudy line-of-sight persistence and recurrence probabilities. There were 585 hr when photographs were taken every 5 min, without interruption, and 885 days when photographs were taken every hour from 0900 through 1500 LST. Data taken from these photographs were processed to obtain relative frequencies of cloud-free or cloudy lines-of-sight given the initial condition. The conditional relative frequencies were used in deriving conditional probability estimates. The resulting probability estimates are judged to be realistic and applicable to many locations.

Abstract

A total of 13,215 high-contrast, whole-sky photographs were studied to derive estimates of cloud-free and cloudy line-of-sight persistence and recurrence probabilities. There were 585 hr when photographs were taken every 5 min, without interruption, and 885 days when photographs were taken every hour from 0900 through 1500 LST. Data taken from these photographs were processed to obtain relative frequencies of cloud-free or cloudy lines-of-sight given the initial condition. The conditional relative frequencies were used in deriving conditional probability estimates. The resulting probability estimates are judged to be realistic and applicable to many locations.

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