Prediction of Precipitation Probability Based on 500-Mb Flow Types

Julia N. Paegle Dept. of Meteorology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City 84112

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Abstract

Regression techniques are applied on stratified and non-stratified data to obtain prediction equations for the probability of precipitation over the western continental United States. The stratification is based on 500-mb winter types. The equations are tested on an independent data sample and it is found that the stratification leads to considerable improvement of the forecasts.

Abstract

Regression techniques are applied on stratified and non-stratified data to obtain prediction equations for the probability of precipitation over the western continental United States. The stratification is based on 500-mb winter types. The equations are tested on an independent data sample and it is found that the stratification leads to considerable improvement of the forecasts.

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