Tropical Storm Frequencies Related to Sea Surface Temperatures

Wayne M. Wendland Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison

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Abstract

A relationship is identified between the area of the North Atlantic with surface temperatures greater than 26.8°C and the frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes. The relationship is direct and near-exponential. When the mean monthly area with sea temperature of 26.8°C is less than about 8.5 × 106 km2, tropical storms and hurricanes do not occur.

Estimates of tropical storm frequency based on the above relationship are made for several episodes of the Holocene.

Abstract

A relationship is identified between the area of the North Atlantic with surface temperatures greater than 26.8°C and the frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes. The relationship is direct and near-exponential. When the mean monthly area with sea temperature of 26.8°C is less than about 8.5 × 106 km2, tropical storms and hurricanes do not occur.

Estimates of tropical storm frequency based on the above relationship are made for several episodes of the Holocene.

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