Time Series Analysis of Daily Maximum Temperatures on a Mountain Slope

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  • 1 Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, Colo. 80521
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Abstract

Summertime daily maximum temperatures from seven different mountain sites in northern Idaho were modeled using time series analysis and probability distribution analysis. The time series models and probability models were compared among sites to determine if there were elevation and aspect differences. No terrain-induced effects were found among the series of deviations from the sample mean. It appeared that all local terrain-induced variation was contained in the seasonal means. This led to the conclusion that daily maximum temperatures varied around the mean value in response to changes in the persistent summer weather pattern that dominates the area.

Abstract

Summertime daily maximum temperatures from seven different mountain sites in northern Idaho were modeled using time series analysis and probability distribution analysis. The time series models and probability models were compared among sites to determine if there were elevation and aspect differences. No terrain-induced effects were found among the series of deviations from the sample mean. It appeared that all local terrain-induced variation was contained in the seasonal means. This led to the conclusion that daily maximum temperatures varied around the mean value in response to changes in the persistent summer weather pattern that dominates the area.

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