The Effect of Markovian and Discrete-Climate Assumptions on the Performance Analysis of Solar Heating Systems

Gerard F. Lameiro Department of Mechanical Engineering and Solar Energy Applications Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins 80523

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Maurice C. Bryson Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins 80523

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Abstract

Analysis of the performance of a solar heating system is considered by means of a first-order Markov chain model for climatic and thermal-balance conditions. Computational limitations require extremely restrictive modeling for the climate, involving constant ambient temperature and two-valued discretization of insolation. Despite the restrictiveness of the assumptions, the results closely match those from dynamic simulations of system performance.

Abstract

Analysis of the performance of a solar heating system is considered by means of a first-order Markov chain model for climatic and thermal-balance conditions. Computational limitations require extremely restrictive modeling for the climate, involving constant ambient temperature and two-valued discretization of insolation. Despite the restrictiveness of the assumptions, the results closely match those from dynamic simulations of system performance.

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