Assessment of Probability of the Probable Maximum Hurricane Event and Its Associated Flooding Potential

Fred J. Mogolesko Environmental Science, Boston Edison Company, Boston, MA 02199

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Abstract

The development of a model for hurricane-induced coastal flooding and the assignment of a probability distribution for each contributing event, makes it possible to estimate the probability of occurrence versus flood elevation. Additionally, this procedure could be used to establish the probability associated with the Probable Maximum Hurricane (PMH). A probabilistic anslysis of PMH parameters and tidal elevation was made to estimate the frequency of a combined PMH induced surge and high tide event. Another probability analysis was made for the recorded high water elevation at a nearby tide-gage station. As a result of the above analysis, it is suggested that PMH water levels are excessively conservative.

Abstract

The development of a model for hurricane-induced coastal flooding and the assignment of a probability distribution for each contributing event, makes it possible to estimate the probability of occurrence versus flood elevation. Additionally, this procedure could be used to establish the probability associated with the Probable Maximum Hurricane (PMH). A probabilistic anslysis of PMH parameters and tidal elevation was made to estimate the frequency of a combined PMH induced surge and high tide event. Another probability analysis was made for the recorded high water elevation at a nearby tide-gage station. As a result of the above analysis, it is suggested that PMH water levels are excessively conservative.

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