Abstract
Statistical forecast equations have been developed for the Greater St. Louis, Missouri, area using Model Output Statistics (MOS) derived from the National Meteorological Center's Limited-Area Fine Mesh (LFM) model. They are used to forecast both the probability of ozone concentrations exceeding the 1971 National Ambient Air Quality Standard and the daily 1 h maximum. Predictions extend out to two days (48 h).
The application of MOS to forecasts of maximum O3 concentrations lead to skillful [better than chance, persistence or climatology (seasonality)] 24 and 48 h objective predictions. The application of MOS to probability statements about O3 concentrations also resulted in reasonable success for 24 h and 48 h probability forecasts. These forecasts appear sufficiently successful to warrant consideration of the development of other equations for large metropolitan area where O3 concentrations commonly exceed the standard.
