An Objective Forecast Method Developed for Lake Ontario Induced Snowfall Systems

K. F. Dewey Climatology Program, University of Nebraska, Lincoln 68588

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Abstract

A research effort was initiated in 1976 to develop an objective lake-effect snowfall forecast model for each of the Great Lakes. It is the purpose of this paper to present the development and evaluation of the forecast method which was created for the Lake Ontario induced snowfall systems. All Lake Ontario lake-effect days were identified for a 10-year period prior to the 1976 snowfall season. Upper air and surface observations were combined with overlake data for these lake-effect periods. The dominant predictors were derived through the diagnostic ability of stepwise multiple discriminant analysis. The final product of this research effort was a seven-predictor lake-effect intensity forecast method which was evaluated on an experimental basis during the 1976–77 and 1977–78 snowfall seasons.

Abstract

A research effort was initiated in 1976 to develop an objective lake-effect snowfall forecast model for each of the Great Lakes. It is the purpose of this paper to present the development and evaluation of the forecast method which was created for the Lake Ontario induced snowfall systems. All Lake Ontario lake-effect days were identified for a 10-year period prior to the 1976 snowfall season. Upper air and surface observations were combined with overlake data for these lake-effect periods. The dominant predictors were derived through the diagnostic ability of stepwise multiple discriminant analysis. The final product of this research effort was a seven-predictor lake-effect intensity forecast method which was evaluated on an experimental basis during the 1976–77 and 1977–78 snowfall seasons.

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