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Experiments in Predicting Sea-Level Pressure Changes for Periods of Less Than Twelve Hours

Iver A. LundAir Force Cambridge Research Laboratories, Bedford, Mass.

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Abstract

Predictions of sea-level pressure changes for periods of 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 11 hr were prepared employing analogues and many different linear regression equations. The equations were derived on a sample of 445 days and tested on an independent sample of 476 days. The set of equations, applicable to all days and consisting of only 4 to 7 predictors, reduced the errors in the 6-,9- and 11-hr pressure change predictions by 81, 80 and 80 per cent, respectively. By predicting the pressure changes at a set of grid points, 6- and 12-hr prognostic charts could be prepared for operational use.

Abstract

Predictions of sea-level pressure changes for periods of 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 11 hr were prepared employing analogues and many different linear regression equations. The equations were derived on a sample of 445 days and tested on an independent sample of 476 days. The set of equations, applicable to all days and consisting of only 4 to 7 predictors, reduced the errors in the 6-,9- and 11-hr pressure change predictions by 81, 80 and 80 per cent, respectively. By predicting the pressure changes at a set of grid points, 6- and 12-hr prognostic charts could be prepared for operational use.

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