Abstract
Stochastic weather events are critical to crop production by individual farmers. Using historic weather information, the probability of alternative weather outcomes is determined. Historic yields from research experiments were used with weather variables created from meteorological data to estimate the yield response of corn to nitrogen and weather and the yield response of soybeans to weather. Discrete stochastic programming techniques, incorporating the probability of weather events and the production response functions, were used to determine optimum fertilization strategies and farm organization. By utilizing current weather information and the probabilities of future weather events, the farmer can realize increases in net farm income ranging from 9 to 14%.
