A Model for Estimating One-Minute Rainfall Rates

Paul Tattelman Air Force Geophysics Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA 01731

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Kathryn G. Scharr Bedford Research Associates, Bedford, MA 01730

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Abstract

A model for estimating one-minute rainfall rates has been developed using stepwise multiple regression analysis. The model is made up of six regression equations to estimate rates that are equalled or exceeded 0.01, 0.05, 0.10, 0.50, 1.0, and 2.0 percent of the time during a month at a given location. Information required to make the estimates consists of monthly mean temperature, monthly mean precipitation, number of days in the month with precipitation (based on any of three threshold values that define a rainy day), and latitude. The model is not valid when the mean monthly temperature is ≤0°C (32°F), when there is less than one rainy day in the month, or when a precipitation index (the ratio of monthly precipitation to the number of rainy days) is less than 2 mm day −1.

Abstract

A model for estimating one-minute rainfall rates has been developed using stepwise multiple regression analysis. The model is made up of six regression equations to estimate rates that are equalled or exceeded 0.01, 0.05, 0.10, 0.50, 1.0, and 2.0 percent of the time during a month at a given location. Information required to make the estimates consists of monthly mean temperature, monthly mean precipitation, number of days in the month with precipitation (based on any of three threshold values that define a rainy day), and latitude. The model is not valid when the mean monthly temperature is ≤0°C (32°F), when there is less than one rainy day in the month, or when a precipitation index (the ratio of monthly precipitation to the number of rainy days) is less than 2 mm day −1.

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