HIPLEX-1: Statistical Evaluation

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  • a Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523
  • | b Division of Atmospheric Resources Research, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO 80225
  • | c Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD 57701
  • | d Division of Atmospheric Resources Research, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO 80225
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Abstract

Results of statistical analyses for HIPLEX-1, a randomized cloud seeding experiment, are presented. The analyses are based principally on multi-response permutation procedures (MRPP) as specified before the HIPLEX-1 experiment was initiated. Even though the sample sizes are very small, due in part to the premature termination of this experiment, the three primary response variables measured in the first five minutes following treatment indicate pronounced differences in the development of ice crystals between nonseeded and seeded events. However, the response variables measured more than five minutes after treatment generally do not indicate obvious differences in the subsequent development of precipitation between nonseeded and seeded events. This lack of difference is a possible consequence of 1) lack of a seeding effect, 2) inadequacies in the physical hypothesis, or 3) the small sample sizes. Consequently, only the initial steps in the HIPLEX-1 physical hypothesis could be confirmed in this evaluation of the experiment.

Abstract

Results of statistical analyses for HIPLEX-1, a randomized cloud seeding experiment, are presented. The analyses are based principally on multi-response permutation procedures (MRPP) as specified before the HIPLEX-1 experiment was initiated. Even though the sample sizes are very small, due in part to the premature termination of this experiment, the three primary response variables measured in the first five minutes following treatment indicate pronounced differences in the development of ice crystals between nonseeded and seeded events. However, the response variables measured more than five minutes after treatment generally do not indicate obvious differences in the subsequent development of precipitation between nonseeded and seeded events. This lack of difference is a possible consequence of 1) lack of a seeding effect, 2) inadequacies in the physical hypothesis, or 3) the small sample sizes. Consequently, only the initial steps in the HIPLEX-1 physical hypothesis could be confirmed in this evaluation of the experiment.

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