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On Improving Initial Data for Numerical Forecasts of Hurricane Trajectories by the Steering Method

Robert W. JonesThe University of Chicago

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Abstract

An objective plan for modifying the steering flow analysis around a hurricane is presented which makes the vertical mean steering velocity equal the observed hurricane velocity. Results of using this plan to make trajectory forecasts with a barotropic model show an improvement compared with forecasts with the same model using a subjective analysis modification plan.

Abstract

An objective plan for modifying the steering flow analysis around a hurricane is presented which makes the vertical mean steering velocity equal the observed hurricane velocity. Results of using this plan to make trajectory forecasts with a barotropic model show an improvement compared with forecasts with the same model using a subjective analysis modification plan.

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