Predicting Total Ozone Based on GTS Data: Applications for South American High-Latitude Populations

Anna E. Jones British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, United Kingdom

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Tanya Bowden British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, United Kingdom

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John Turner British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, United Kingdom

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Abstract

A regular occurrence during the 1990s has been the excursion of the edge of the springtime Antarctic ozone hole over the southernmost region of the South American continent. Given the essential role of atmospheric ozone in absorbing incoming solar ultraviolet radiation, the populations in this area are thus exposed to much higher ultraviolet-B irradiance than is normal for this time of year. The authors report here on a simple technique that might be used to forecast these low ozone episodes, based upon data readily available on the World Meteorological Organization Global Telecommunications System. Using this technique, total ozone during October 1991 at Punta Arenas, Chile, is predicted with a root-mean-square error of 34.4 DU (12.8%) and a mean error of 14.8 DU (5.5%).

* Current affiliation: Defence Research Associates, Malvern, Worcestershire, United Kingdom.

Corresponding author address: Anna Jones, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, United Kingdom.

a.jones@bas.ac.uk

Abstract

A regular occurrence during the 1990s has been the excursion of the edge of the springtime Antarctic ozone hole over the southernmost region of the South American continent. Given the essential role of atmospheric ozone in absorbing incoming solar ultraviolet radiation, the populations in this area are thus exposed to much higher ultraviolet-B irradiance than is normal for this time of year. The authors report here on a simple technique that might be used to forecast these low ozone episodes, based upon data readily available on the World Meteorological Organization Global Telecommunications System. Using this technique, total ozone during October 1991 at Punta Arenas, Chile, is predicted with a root-mean-square error of 34.4 DU (12.8%) and a mean error of 14.8 DU (5.5%).

* Current affiliation: Defence Research Associates, Malvern, Worcestershire, United Kingdom.

Corresponding author address: Anna Jones, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, United Kingdom.

a.jones@bas.ac.uk

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