Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Emergency Response Transport Forecasting Using Historical Wind Field Pattern Matching

Roger G. Carter NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Field Research Division, Idaho Falls, Idaho

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Robert E. Keislar NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Field Research Division, Idaho Falls, Idaho

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Print Publication:
01 Mar 2000
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<0446:ERTFUH>2.0.CO;2
Page(s):
446–462
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Abstract

Historical pattern matching, or analog forecasting, is used to generate short-term mesoscale transport forecasts for emergency response at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. A simple historical pattern-matching algorithm operating on a database from the spatially and temporally dense Eastern Idaho Mesonet is used to generate a wind field forecast, which then is input to an existing puff diffusion model. The forecasts are rated both by a team of meteorologists and by a computer scoring method. Over 60% of the forecasts are rated as acceptable. The forecasts also are compared with a persistence method, using both a subjective human evaluation and root-mean-square error calculations.

Corresponding author address: Roger G. Carter, NOAA/ARL/FRD, 1750 Foote Dr., Idaho Falls, ID 84302.

Abstract

Historical pattern matching, or analog forecasting, is used to generate short-term mesoscale transport forecasts for emergency response at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. A simple historical pattern-matching algorithm operating on a database from the spatially and temporally dense Eastern Idaho Mesonet is used to generate a wind field forecast, which then is input to an existing puff diffusion model. The forecasts are rated both by a team of meteorologists and by a computer scoring method. Over 60% of the forecasts are rated as acceptable. The forecasts also are compared with a persistence method, using both a subjective human evaluation and root-mean-square error calculations.

Corresponding author address: Roger G. Carter, NOAA/ARL/FRD, 1750 Foote Dr., Idaho Falls, ID 84302.

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Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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