Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Seasonal Maize Forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe Derived from an Agroclimatological Model

Randall V. Martin Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

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Richard Washington School of Geography, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

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Thomas E. Downing Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

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Print Publication:
01 Sep 2000
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<1473:SMFFSA>2.0.CO;2
Page(s):
1473–1479
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Abstract

Seasonal maize water-stress forecasts were derived for area averages of the primary maize-growing regions of South Africa and Zimbabwe. An agroclimatological model was used to create a historical record of maize water stress as a function of evapotranspiration for 1961–94. Water stress, the primary determinant of yield in water-limited environments such as southern Africa, was correlated with two well-known indices of the El Niño– Southern Oscillation: the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the Niño-3 region of the equatorial Pacific. Forecasts for South Africa using only the SOI at a 4-month lead yielded a hindcast correlation of 0.67 over 17 seasons (1961–78) and a forecast correlation of 0.69 over 16 seasons (1978–94). Forecasts for Zimbabwe were less remarkable.

*Current affiliation: Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Corresponding author address: Randall Martin, Pierce Hall, 29 Oxford Street, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.

Abstract

Seasonal maize water-stress forecasts were derived for area averages of the primary maize-growing regions of South Africa and Zimbabwe. An agroclimatological model was used to create a historical record of maize water stress as a function of evapotranspiration for 1961–94. Water stress, the primary determinant of yield in water-limited environments such as southern Africa, was correlated with two well-known indices of the El Niño– Southern Oscillation: the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the Niño-3 region of the equatorial Pacific. Forecasts for South Africa using only the SOI at a 4-month lead yielded a hindcast correlation of 0.67 over 17 seasons (1961–78) and a forecast correlation of 0.69 over 16 seasons (1978–94). Forecasts for Zimbabwe were less remarkable.

*Current affiliation: Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Corresponding author address: Randall Martin, Pierce Hall, 29 Oxford Street, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.

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Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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