Air Temperature Model Evaluation in the North Mediterranean Belt Area

Julia Bilbao Department of Applied Physics, University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain

Search for other papers by Julia Bilbao in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Argimiro H. de Miguel Department of Applied Physics, University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain

Search for other papers by Argimiro H. de Miguel in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Harry D. Kambezidis Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece

Search for other papers by Harry D. Kambezidis in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

A comparative assessment of air temperature models, using hourly and daily air temperature measurements in 34 different stations in the north Mediterranean belt, is presented. Four air temperature models were used to estimate hourly and daily mean air temperature from daily maximum, daily minimum, and monthly mean air temperature. Root-mean-square error (rmse), scatter graphs, and cumulative frequency curves were used to determine the performance of each model. The best overall performance for estimating hourly air temperature from monthly mean values was presented by Erbs's model; the “standard” model gave the best performance for estimating daily mean air temperature from daily minimum and maximum air temperature values. The results show that the Erbs and standard models are the best for all stations used. A new Climatic Synthetic Time Series for the Mediterranean Belt Temperature Model (CLIMEDTEM) for estimating daily air temperature was developed by the authors with the help of available data banks, yielding a stochastic model that showed fits to the data with rmse values of 14%.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Julia Bilbao, Department of Applied Physics, University of Valladolid, 47005, Valladolid, Spain. juliab@fa1.uva.es

Abstract

A comparative assessment of air temperature models, using hourly and daily air temperature measurements in 34 different stations in the north Mediterranean belt, is presented. Four air temperature models were used to estimate hourly and daily mean air temperature from daily maximum, daily minimum, and monthly mean air temperature. Root-mean-square error (rmse), scatter graphs, and cumulative frequency curves were used to determine the performance of each model. The best overall performance for estimating hourly air temperature from monthly mean values was presented by Erbs's model; the “standard” model gave the best performance for estimating daily mean air temperature from daily minimum and maximum air temperature values. The results show that the Erbs and standard models are the best for all stations used. A new Climatic Synthetic Time Series for the Mediterranean Belt Temperature Model (CLIMEDTEM) for estimating daily air temperature was developed by the authors with the help of available data banks, yielding a stochastic model that showed fits to the data with rmse values of 14%.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Julia Bilbao, Department of Applied Physics, University of Valladolid, 47005, Valladolid, Spain. juliab@fa1.uva.es

Save
  • Aguiar, R. 1996. Séries sintèticas de parâmetros meteorològicos (Synthetic series of meterological parameters). Ph.D. thesis. Lisbon University, Lisbon, Portugal, 525 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aguiar, R. . 1997. Climatic synthetic series for the Mediterranean belt. Instituto Nacional de Engenharia E Tecnologia Industrial. Final CLIMED Project Rep., 101 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Amato, U., V. Cuomo, F. Fontana, and F. C. Serio. 1989. Statistical predictability and parametric models of daily ambient temperature and solar irradiance: An analysis in the Italian climate. J. Appl. Meteor. 28:711721.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bilbao, J., A. de Miguel, J. A. Medina, and J. J. López. 1997. Model performance tests. CLIMED Project Rep. to European Community DGXII, Applied Physics I Dept., Valladolid University, Spain, 183 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Boland, J. 1997. The importance of the stochastic component of climatic variable in simulating the thermal behavior of domestic dwellings. Sol. Energy 60:359370.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cuomo, V., F. Fontana, and C. Serio. 1986. Behaviour of ambient temperature on daily basis in Italian climate. Rev. Phys. Appl. 21:211218.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • de Miguel, A., J. Bilbao, R. Aguiar, H. Kambezidis, and E. Negro. 2001. Diffuse solar irradiation model evaluation in the north Mediterranean belt area. Sol. Energy 70:143153.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Erbs, D. G. 1984. Models and applications for weather statistics related to building heating and cooling loads. Ph.D. thesis, Mechanical Engineering Dept., University of Wisconsin—Madison, 336 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Erbs, D. G., S. A. Klein, and W. A. Beckman. 1983. Estimation of degree-day and ambient temperature bin data from monthly-average temperatures. ASHRAE J. 25:6065.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Heinemann, D., C. Langer, and J. Schumacher. 1996. Synthesis of hourly ambient temperature time series correlated with solar radiation. Proc. EuroSun'96 Conf., Freiburg, Germany, ISES-Europe, 1518–1523. [Available from Energy Department, Oldenburg University, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hernández, E., R. García, and M. T. Teso. 1991. Minimum temperature forecasting by stochastic techniques: An evidence of the heat island effect. Mausam 41:161166.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hollands, G. T., L. T. D'Andrea, and I. D. Morrison. 1989. Effect of random fluctuations in ambient air temperature on solar system performance. Sol. Energy 42:335338.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kambezidis, H. D. and A. D. Adamopoulos. 1997. Final data set. Third Progress Rep. of the CLIMED Project to the European Community. JOULE DG XII Programme, 21 pp. [Available from Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece.].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kambezidis, H. D., B. E. Psiloglou, and C. Gueymard. 1994. Measurements and models for total solar irradiance on inclined surface in Athens, Greece. Sol. Energy 53:177185.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Klein, S. A. 1987. Scientific vs. correlation methods. Proc. ISES Solar World Congress 1987, Hamburg, Germany, ISES, 3109–3114.

  • Knight, K. M., S. A. Klein, and J. A. Duffie. 1991. A methodology for the synthesis of hourly weather data. Sol. Energy 46:109120.

  • Macchiato, M., C. Serio, V. Lapenna, and L. La Rotonda. 1993. Parametric time series analysis of cold and hot spells in daily temperature: An application in southern Italy. J. Appl. Meteor. 32:12701281.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Macchiato, M., L. La Rotonda, V. Lapenna, and M. Ragosta. 1995. Time modelling and spatial clustering of daily ambient temperature: An application in southern Italy. Environmetrics 6:3153.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 398 65 8
PDF Downloads 170 33 5