Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part III: Case Study of a Melbourne 4-Day Photochemical Smog Event

K. J. Tory Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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M. E. Cope CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia
CSIRO Energy Technology, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia

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G. D. Hess Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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S. Lee CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

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K. Puri Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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P. C. Manins CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

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N. Wong Environment Protection Authority of Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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Print Publication:
01 May 2004
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2092.1
Page(s):
680–695
Restricted access

Abstract

A 4-day photochemical smog event in the Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, region (6–9 March 2001) is examined to assess the performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS). Although peak ozone concentrations measured during this period did not exceed the 1-h national air quality standard of 100 ppb, elevated maximum ozone concentrations in the range of 50–80 ppb were recorded at a number of monitoring stations on all four days. These maximum values were in general very well forecast by the AAQFS. On all but the third day the system predicted the advection of ozone precursors over Port Phillip (the adjacent bay) during the morning, where, later in the day, relatively high ozone concentrations developed. The ozone was advected back inland by bay and sea breezes. On the third day, a southerly component to the background wind direction prevented the precursor drainage over the bay, and the characteristic ozone cycle was disrupted. The success of the system's ability to predict peak ozone at individual monitoring stations was largely dependent on the direction and penetration of the sea and bay breezes, which in turn were dependent on the delicate balance between these winds and the opposing synoptic flow.

Corresponding author address: K. J. Tory, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia. k.tory@bom.gov.au

Abstract

A 4-day photochemical smog event in the Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, region (6–9 March 2001) is examined to assess the performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS). Although peak ozone concentrations measured during this period did not exceed the 1-h national air quality standard of 100 ppb, elevated maximum ozone concentrations in the range of 50–80 ppb were recorded at a number of monitoring stations on all four days. These maximum values were in general very well forecast by the AAQFS. On all but the third day the system predicted the advection of ozone precursors over Port Phillip (the adjacent bay) during the morning, where, later in the day, relatively high ozone concentrations developed. The ozone was advected back inland by bay and sea breezes. On the third day, a southerly component to the background wind direction prevented the precursor drainage over the bay, and the characteristic ozone cycle was disrupted. The success of the system's ability to predict peak ozone at individual monitoring stations was largely dependent on the direction and penetration of the sea and bay breezes, which in turn were dependent on the delicate balance between these winds and the opposing synoptic flow.

Corresponding author address: K. J. Tory, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia. k.tory@bom.gov.au

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