Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part II: Case Study of a Sydney 7-Day Photochemical Smog Event

G. D. Hess Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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K. J. Tory Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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M. E. Cope CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia
CSIRO Energy Technology, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia

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S. Lee CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

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K. Puri Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

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P. C. Manins CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

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M. Young Department of Environment and Conservation (NSW), Lidcombe, New South Wales, Australia

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Print Publication:
01 May 2004
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2094.1
Page(s):
663–679
Restricted access

Abstract

The performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) is examined by means of a case study of a 7-day photochemical smog event in the Sydney region. This was the worst smog event for the 2000/ 01 oxidant season, and, because of its prolonged nature, it provided the opportunity to demonstrate the ability of AAQFS to forecast situations involving recirculation of precursors and remnant ozone, fumigation, and complex meteorological dynamics. The forecasting system was able to successfully predict high values of ozone, although at times the peak concentrations for the inland stations were underestimated. The dynamics for the Sydney region require a sensitive balance between the synoptic and mesoscale flows. Often high concentrations of ozone were advected inland by the sea breeze. On two occasions the system forecast a synoptic flow that was too strong, which blocked the inland advancement of the sea breeze. The peak ozone forecasts were underpredicted at the inland stations on those occasions. An examination of possible factors causing forecast errors has indicated that the AAQFS is more sensitive to errors in the meteorological conditions, rather than in the emissions or chemical mechanism in the Sydney region.

Corresponding author address: G. D. Hess, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia. d.hess@bom.gov.au

Abstract

The performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) is examined by means of a case study of a 7-day photochemical smog event in the Sydney region. This was the worst smog event for the 2000/ 01 oxidant season, and, because of its prolonged nature, it provided the opportunity to demonstrate the ability of AAQFS to forecast situations involving recirculation of precursors and remnant ozone, fumigation, and complex meteorological dynamics. The forecasting system was able to successfully predict high values of ozone, although at times the peak concentrations for the inland stations were underestimated. The dynamics for the Sydney region require a sensitive balance between the synoptic and mesoscale flows. Often high concentrations of ozone were advected inland by the sea breeze. On two occasions the system forecast a synoptic flow that was too strong, which blocked the inland advancement of the sea breeze. The peak ozone forecasts were underpredicted at the inland stations on those occasions. An examination of possible factors causing forecast errors has indicated that the AAQFS is more sensitive to errors in the meteorological conditions, rather than in the emissions or chemical mechanism in the Sydney region.

Corresponding author address: G. D. Hess, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia. d.hess@bom.gov.au

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Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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