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Development and Testing of Tropical Cyclone Parametric Wind Models Tailored for Midlatitude Application—Preliminary Results

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  • 1 National Laboratory for Marine and Coastal Meteorology, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada
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Abstract

Over the years, researchers have developed parametric wind models to depict the surface winds within a tropical cyclone (TC). Most models were developed using data from aircraft flights into low-latitude (south of 30°N) TCs in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Such models may not adequately reproduce the midlatitude TC wind field where synoptic interaction and acceleration are more pronounced. To tailor these models for midlatitude application, latitude-dependent angular size and shape details were added by using new techniques to set values for model input parameters and by incorporating additional field-shaping procedures. A method to assess the different techniques and field-shaping procedures was developed in which qualitative and quantitative assessment was performed using five parametric models and samples of buoy and 2D surface wind data. Contingency tables and statistical scores such as mean absolute error and bias were used to select the techniques and procedures that create the most realistic depiction of low- and midlatitude TC surface wind fields.

Corresponding author address: Allan W. MacAfee, National Laboratory for Marine and Coastal Meteorology, Meteorological Service of Canada, 45 Alderney Dr., Dartmouth NS B2Y 2N6, Canada. Email: al.macafee@ec.gc.ca

Abstract

Over the years, researchers have developed parametric wind models to depict the surface winds within a tropical cyclone (TC). Most models were developed using data from aircraft flights into low-latitude (south of 30°N) TCs in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Such models may not adequately reproduce the midlatitude TC wind field where synoptic interaction and acceleration are more pronounced. To tailor these models for midlatitude application, latitude-dependent angular size and shape details were added by using new techniques to set values for model input parameters and by incorporating additional field-shaping procedures. A method to assess the different techniques and field-shaping procedures was developed in which qualitative and quantitative assessment was performed using five parametric models and samples of buoy and 2D surface wind data. Contingency tables and statistical scores such as mean absolute error and bias were used to select the techniques and procedures that create the most realistic depiction of low- and midlatitude TC surface wind fields.

Corresponding author address: Allan W. MacAfee, National Laboratory for Marine and Coastal Meteorology, Meteorological Service of Canada, 45 Alderney Dr., Dartmouth NS B2Y 2N6, Canada. Email: al.macafee@ec.gc.ca

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