Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part II: Interrange Comparison of the Accuracy of Model Analyses and Forecasts

Yubao Liu National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Yubao Liu in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Thomas T. Warner National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Thomas T. Warner in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Elford G. Astling U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, Utah

Search for other papers by Elford G. Astling in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
James F. Bowers U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, Utah

Search for other papers by James F. Bowers in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Christopher A. Davis National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Christopher A. Davis in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Scott F. Halvorson U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, Utah

Search for other papers by Scott F. Halvorson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Daran L. Rife National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Daran L. Rife in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Rong-Shyang Sheu National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Rong-Shyang Sheu in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Scott P. Swerdlin National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Scott P. Swerdlin in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Mei Xu National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Mei Xu in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Apr 2008
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1654.1
Page(s):
1093–1104
Restricted access

Abstract

This study builds upon previous efforts to document the performance of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command’s Four-Dimensional Weather Modeling System using conventional metrics. Winds, temperature, and specific humidity were verified for almost 15 000 forecasts at five U.S. Army test ranges using near-surface mesonet data. The primary objective was to use conventional metrics to characterize the degree to which forecast accuracy varies from range to range, within the diurnal cycle, with elapsed forecast time, and among the seasons. It was found that there are large interrange differences in forecast error, with larger errors typically associated with the ranges located near complex orography. Similarly, significant variations in accuracy were noted for different times in the diurnal cycle, but the diurnal dependency varied greatly among the ranges. Factor of 2 differences in accuracy were also found across the seasons.

@ The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Corresponding author address: Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAL, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000. Email: yliu@ucar.edu

Abstract

This study builds upon previous efforts to document the performance of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command’s Four-Dimensional Weather Modeling System using conventional metrics. Winds, temperature, and specific humidity were verified for almost 15 000 forecasts at five U.S. Army test ranges using near-surface mesonet data. The primary objective was to use conventional metrics to characterize the degree to which forecast accuracy varies from range to range, within the diurnal cycle, with elapsed forecast time, and among the seasons. It was found that there are large interrange differences in forecast error, with larger errors typically associated with the ranges located near complex orography. Similarly, significant variations in accuracy were noted for different times in the diurnal cycle, but the diurnal dependency varied greatly among the ranges. Factor of 2 differences in accuracy were also found across the seasons.

@ The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Corresponding author address: Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAL, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000. Email: yliu@ucar.edu

Save
Cover Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

  • Case, J. L., J. Monobianco, A. V. Dianic, M. M. Wheeler, D. E. Harms, and C. R. Parks, 2002: Verification of high-resolution RAMS forecasts over east-central Florida during the 1999 and 2000 summer months. Wea. Forecasting, 17 , 1133–1151.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Davis, C., T. Warner, J. Bowers, and E. Astling, 1999: Development and application of an operational, relocatable, mesogamma-scale weather analysis and forecasting system. Tellus, 51A , 710–727.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dudhia, J., 1993: A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State–NCAR Mesoscale Model: Validation tests and the simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121 , 1493–1513.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Grell, G. A., J. Dudhia, and D. R. Stauffer, 1994: A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN 398+STR, 138 pp. [Available from NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307.].

  • Hart, K. A., W. J. Steenburgh, D. J. Onton, and A. J. Siffert, 2004: An evaluation of mesoscale-model-based model output statistics (MOS) during the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games. Wea. Forecasting, 19 , 200–218.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Liu, Y., F. Chen, T. Warner, and J. Basara, 2006: Verification of a mesoscale data-assimilation and forecasting system for the Oklahoma City area during the Joint Urban 2003 Field Project. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45 , 912–929.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Liu, Y., and Coauthors, 2008: The operational mesogamma-scale analysis and forecast system of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part I: Overview of the modeling system, the forecast products, and how the products are used. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47 , 1077–1092.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mass, C. F., D. Ovens, K. Westrick, and B. A. Colle, 2002: Does increasing horizontal resolution produce more skillful forecasts? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83 , 407–430.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rife, D. L., and C. A. Davis, 2005: Verification of temporal variations in mesoscale numerical wind forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133 , 3368–3381.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rife, D. L., T. T. Warner, F. Chen, and E. G. Astling, 2002: Mechanisms for diurnal boundary-layer circulations in the Great Basin Desert. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130 , 921–938.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rife, D. L., C. A. Davis, Y. Liu, and T. T. Warner, 2004: Predictability of low-level winds by mesoscale meteorological models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 2553–2569.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Warner, T. T., and R-S. Sheu, 2000: Multiscale local forcing of the Arabian Desert daytime boundary layer, and implications for the dispersion of surface-released contaminants. J. Appl. Meteor., 39 , 686–707.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zhang, D-L., and W. Zheng, 2004: Diurnal cycles of surface winds and temperatures as simulated by five boundary-layer parameterizations. J. Appl. Meteor., 43 , 157–169.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 469 268 20
PDF Downloads 114 34 4