Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part IV: The White Sands Missile Range Auto-Nowcast System

Thomas R. Saxen National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Cynthia K. Mueller National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Thomas T. Warner National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado

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Matthias Steiner National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Edward E. Ellison U.S. Army White Sands Missile Range, White Sands, New Mexico

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Eric W. Hatfield U.S. Army White Sands Missile Range, White Sands, New Mexico

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Terri L. Betancourt National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Susan M. Dettling National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Niles A. Oien National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Print Publication:
01 Apr 2008
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1656.1
Page(s):
1123–1139
Restricted access

Abstract

During the summer months at the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command’s (ATEC) White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), forecasting thunderstorm activity is one of the primary duties of the range forecasters. The safety of personnel working on the range and the protection of expensive test equipment depend critically on the quality of forecasts of thunderstorms and associated hazards, including cloud-to-ground lightning, hail, strong winds, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and tornadoes. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Auto-Nowcast (ANC) system is one of the key forecast tools in the ATEC Four-Dimensional Weather System (4DWX) at WSMR, where its purpose is to aid WSMR meteorologists in their mission of very short term thunderstorm forecasting. Besides monitoring the weather activity throughout the region and warning personnel of potentially hazardous thunderstorms, forecasters play a key role in assisting with the day-to-day planning of test operations on the range by providing guidance with regard to weather conditions favorable to testing. Moreover, based on climatological information about the local weather conditions, forecasters advise their range customers about scheduling tests at WSMR months in advance. This paper reviews the NCAR ANC system, provides examples of the ANC system’s use in thunderstorm forecasting, and describes climatological analyses of WSMR summertime thunderstorm activity relevant for long-range planning of tests. The climatological analysis illustrates that radar-detected convective cells with reflectivity of ≥35 dBZ at WSMR are 1) short lived, with 76% having lifetimes of less than 30 min; 2) small, with 67% occupying areas of less than 25 km2; 3) slow moving, with 79% exhibiting speeds of less than 4 m s−1; 4) moderately intense, with 80% showing reflectivities in excess of 40 dBZ; and 5) deep, with 80% of the storms reaching far enough above the freezing level to be capable of generating lightning.

@ The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Thomas Warner, NCAR/RAL, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000. Email: warner@ucar.edu

Abstract

During the summer months at the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command’s (ATEC) White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), forecasting thunderstorm activity is one of the primary duties of the range forecasters. The safety of personnel working on the range and the protection of expensive test equipment depend critically on the quality of forecasts of thunderstorms and associated hazards, including cloud-to-ground lightning, hail, strong winds, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and tornadoes. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Auto-Nowcast (ANC) system is one of the key forecast tools in the ATEC Four-Dimensional Weather System (4DWX) at WSMR, where its purpose is to aid WSMR meteorologists in their mission of very short term thunderstorm forecasting. Besides monitoring the weather activity throughout the region and warning personnel of potentially hazardous thunderstorms, forecasters play a key role in assisting with the day-to-day planning of test operations on the range by providing guidance with regard to weather conditions favorable to testing. Moreover, based on climatological information about the local weather conditions, forecasters advise their range customers about scheduling tests at WSMR months in advance. This paper reviews the NCAR ANC system, provides examples of the ANC system’s use in thunderstorm forecasting, and describes climatological analyses of WSMR summertime thunderstorm activity relevant for long-range planning of tests. The climatological analysis illustrates that radar-detected convective cells with reflectivity of ≥35 dBZ at WSMR are 1) short lived, with 76% having lifetimes of less than 30 min; 2) small, with 67% occupying areas of less than 25 km2; 3) slow moving, with 79% exhibiting speeds of less than 4 m s−1; 4) moderately intense, with 80% showing reflectivities in excess of 40 dBZ; and 5) deep, with 80% of the storms reaching far enough above the freezing level to be capable of generating lightning.

@ The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Thomas Warner, NCAR/RAL, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000. Email: warner@ucar.edu

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Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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