Abstract
The assimilation of cloud- and precipitation-affected observations into weather forecasting systems requires very fast calculations of radiative transfer in the presence of multiple scattering. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), performance limitations mean that only a single cloudy calculation (including any precipitation) can be made, and the simulated radiance is a weighted combination of cloudy- and clear-sky radiances. Originally, the weight given to the cloudy part was the maximum cloud fraction in the atmospheric profile. However, this weighting was excessive, and because of nonlinear radiative transfer (the “beamfilling effect”) there were biases in areas of cloud and precipitation. A new approach instead uses the profile average cloud fraction, and decreases RMS errors by 40% in areas of rain or heavy clouds when “truth” comes from multiple independent column simulations. There is improvement all the way from low (e.g., 19 GHz) to high (e.g., 183 GHz) microwave frequencies. There is also improvement when truth comes from microwave imager observations. One minor problem is that biases increase slightly in mid- and upper-tropospheric sounding channels in light-cloud situations, which shows that future improvements will require the cloud fraction to vary according to the optical properties at different frequencies.
Corresponding author address: Alan Geer, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom. Email: alan.geer@ecmwf.int
This article included in the International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG) special collection.
