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Maximum Covariance Analysis of Typhoon Surface Wind and Rainfall Relationships in Taiwan

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  • 1 Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, and Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan
  • | 2 Department of Civil Engineering, and Hydrotech Research Institute, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
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Abstract

The multivariate relationships between hourly surface wind and rainfall observations during typhoons affecting Taiwan have been investigated with maximum covariance analysis (MCA). Historical surface observations from 1987 to 2004 are used when typhoon centers were located inside the domain of 19°–28°N, 117°–127°E. The three leading MCA modes explain 70%, 20.6%, and 7.6% of the squared covariance fraction, and the correlation coefficients are 0.59, 0.48, and 0.49, respectively. The wind directions of the three leading positive modes are 1) northwesterly flow perpendicular to the Snow Mountain Range (SMR), 2) southwesterly flow toward the river valleys of the southwestern Central Mountain Range (CMR) and the southern SMR, and 3) easterly flow toward the northeastern SMR and the northern CMR. The rainfall patterns of the three principal modes reveal the contrast between the windward and the leeward sides of the mountain ranges. Based on the MCA singular vectors, historical typhoon surface wind patterns are categorized into major types. The results show that the three major wind types consist of 53% of the data, with 25%, 9%, and 19%, respectively, for these wind types. Furthermore, the analyses of the corresponding surface air temperatures, relative humidities, and air pressures also reveal contrasting patterns between the windward and leeward sides.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Weather Forecast Center, Central Weather Bureau, No. 64, Gongyuan Rd., Taipei City 10048, Taiwan. Email: hctsai@cwb.gov.tw

Abstract

The multivariate relationships between hourly surface wind and rainfall observations during typhoons affecting Taiwan have been investigated with maximum covariance analysis (MCA). Historical surface observations from 1987 to 2004 are used when typhoon centers were located inside the domain of 19°–28°N, 117°–127°E. The three leading MCA modes explain 70%, 20.6%, and 7.6% of the squared covariance fraction, and the correlation coefficients are 0.59, 0.48, and 0.49, respectively. The wind directions of the three leading positive modes are 1) northwesterly flow perpendicular to the Snow Mountain Range (SMR), 2) southwesterly flow toward the river valleys of the southwestern Central Mountain Range (CMR) and the southern SMR, and 3) easterly flow toward the northeastern SMR and the northern CMR. The rainfall patterns of the three principal modes reveal the contrast between the windward and the leeward sides of the mountain ranges. Based on the MCA singular vectors, historical typhoon surface wind patterns are categorized into major types. The results show that the three major wind types consist of 53% of the data, with 25%, 9%, and 19%, respectively, for these wind types. Furthermore, the analyses of the corresponding surface air temperatures, relative humidities, and air pressures also reveal contrasting patterns between the windward and leeward sides.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Weather Forecast Center, Central Weather Bureau, No. 64, Gongyuan Rd., Taipei City 10048, Taiwan. Email: hctsai@cwb.gov.tw

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