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On the Analysis of a Cloud Seeding Dataset over Tasmania

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  • 1 Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  • | 2 Hydro Tasmania, Ltd., Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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Abstract

An analysis of cloud seeding activity for the period 1960–2005 over a hydroelectric catchment (target) area located in central Tasmania, Australia, is presented. The analysis is performed using a double ratio on monthly area-averaged rainfall for the months of May–October. Results indicate that increases in monthly precipitation are observed within the target area relative to nearby controls during periods of cloud seeding activity. Ten independent tests were performed and all double ratios found are above unity with values that range from 5% to 14%. Nine out of 10 confidence intervals are entirely above unity and overlap in the range of 6%–11%. Nine tests obtain levels of significance >0.05 level. If the Bonferroni adjustment is made to account for multiple comparisons, six tests are found to be significant at the adjusted alpha level. Further field measurements of the cloud microphysics over this region are needed to provide a physical basis for these statistical results.

Corresponding author address: Anthony Morrison, School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University, Wellington Rd., Clayton, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia. Email: anthony.morrison@sci.monash.edu.au

Abstract

An analysis of cloud seeding activity for the period 1960–2005 over a hydroelectric catchment (target) area located in central Tasmania, Australia, is presented. The analysis is performed using a double ratio on monthly area-averaged rainfall for the months of May–October. Results indicate that increases in monthly precipitation are observed within the target area relative to nearby controls during periods of cloud seeding activity. Ten independent tests were performed and all double ratios found are above unity with values that range from 5% to 14%. Nine out of 10 confidence intervals are entirely above unity and overlap in the range of 6%–11%. Nine tests obtain levels of significance >0.05 level. If the Bonferroni adjustment is made to account for multiple comparisons, six tests are found to be significant at the adjusted alpha level. Further field measurements of the cloud microphysics over this region are needed to provide a physical basis for these statistical results.

Corresponding author address: Anthony Morrison, School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University, Wellington Rd., Clayton, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia. Email: anthony.morrison@sci.monash.edu.au

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