Article Type:
Research Article

Summer Severe-Rainfall Frequency Trend and Variability over Ontario, Canada

Zuohao Cao Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

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Jianmin Ma Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

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Print Publication:
01 Sep 2009
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2055.1
Page(s):
1955–1960
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Abstract

During the last two decades (1979–2002), there has been an ever-increasing frequency of summer severe-rainfall events over Ontario, Canada. This observed upward trend is robust as demonstrated through the Mann–Kendall test with consideration of removing a lag-1 autoregressive process. It is shown through composite analyses using the NCEP reanalysis data that in the presence of warming conditions the summer severe-rainfall events occur more frequently over Ontario, especially under atmospheric conditions with stronger low-level cyclonic circulations and more precipitable water. Further analyses indicate that over north and central Ontario the summer severe-rainfall frequency is linked with a positive trend of precipitable water whereas over central and south Ontario there is a strong interannual response of summer severe-rainfall frequency to the changes in precipitable water through the variations of air temperature.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Zuohao Cao, Meteorological Service of Canada, 4905 Dufferin St., Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. Email: zuohao.cao@ec.gc.ca

Abstract

During the last two decades (1979–2002), there has been an ever-increasing frequency of summer severe-rainfall events over Ontario, Canada. This observed upward trend is robust as demonstrated through the Mann–Kendall test with consideration of removing a lag-1 autoregressive process. It is shown through composite analyses using the NCEP reanalysis data that in the presence of warming conditions the summer severe-rainfall events occur more frequently over Ontario, especially under atmospheric conditions with stronger low-level cyclonic circulations and more precipitable water. Further analyses indicate that over north and central Ontario the summer severe-rainfall frequency is linked with a positive trend of precipitable water whereas over central and south Ontario there is a strong interannual response of summer severe-rainfall frequency to the changes in precipitable water through the variations of air temperature.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Zuohao Cao, Meteorological Service of Canada, 4905 Dufferin St., Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. Email: zuohao.cao@ec.gc.ca

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