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Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Article Type:
Reply

Reply

Lasse Makkonen1
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  • 1 VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland
Print Publication:
01 Jan 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2533.1
Page(s):
267–270
Restricted access

Abstract

This reply addresses the use of order statistics in extreme value analysis. The author has previously proposed in this journal that the distribution-dependent estimators of plotting position in extreme value analysis should be abandoned and replaced by the Weibull formula. It was also demonstrated that the use of the wrong plotting positions has resulted in underestimation of the probability of extreme-weather events. Cook’s comments challenge these developments and defend the previously presented plotting methods. In this reply it is outlined that the Weibull formula provides the exact probability PI of nonexceedance in order-ranked data. Hence, there is no sampling error related to PI. This renders Cook’s primary arguments invalid. The specific critical comments by Cook are also replied to and are shown to be unfounded.

Corresponding author address: Lasse Makkonen, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Box 1000, 02044 VTT, Espoo, Finland. Email: lasse.makkonen@vtt.fi

Abstract

This reply addresses the use of order statistics in extreme value analysis. The author has previously proposed in this journal that the distribution-dependent estimators of plotting position in extreme value analysis should be abandoned and replaced by the Weibull formula. It was also demonstrated that the use of the wrong plotting positions has resulted in underestimation of the probability of extreme-weather events. Cook’s comments challenge these developments and defend the previously presented plotting methods. In this reply it is outlined that the Weibull formula provides the exact probability PI of nonexceedance in order-ranked data. Hence, there is no sampling error related to PI. This renders Cook’s primary arguments invalid. The specific critical comments by Cook are also replied to and are shown to be unfounded.

Corresponding author address: Lasse Makkonen, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Box 1000, 02044 VTT, Espoo, Finland. Email: lasse.makkonen@vtt.fi

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