Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Prediction of In-Cloud Icing Conditions at Ground Level Using the WRF Model

Bjørn Egil Kringlebotn Nygaard The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

Search for other papers by Bjørn Egil Kringlebotn Nygaard in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Jón Egill Kristjánsson Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

Search for other papers by Jón Egill Kristjánsson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Lasse Makkonen VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland

Search for other papers by Lasse Makkonen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Dec 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-054.1
Page(s):
2445–2459
Restricted access

Abstract

In-cloud icing on aircraft and ground structures can be observed every winter in many countries. In extreme cases ice can cause accidents and damage to infrastructure such as power transmission lines, telecommunication towers, wind turbines, ski lifts, and so on. This study investigates the potential for predicting episodes of in-cloud icing at ground level using a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is applied, with attention paid to the model’s skill to explicitly predict the amount of supercooled cloud liquid water content (SLWC) at the ground level at different horizontal resolutions and with different cloud microphysics schemes. The paper also discusses how well the median volume droplet diameter (MVD) can be diagnosed from the model output. A unique dataset of direct measurements of SLWC and MVD at ground level on a hilltop in northern Finland is used for validation. A mean absolute error of predicted SLWC as low as 0.08 g m−3 is obtained when the highest model resolution is applied (grid spacing equal to 0.333 km), together with the Thompson microphysics scheme. The quality of the SLWC predictions decreases dramatically with decreasing model resolution, and a systematic difference in predictive skill is found between the cloud microphysics schemes applied. A comparison between measured and predicted MVD shows that when prescribing the droplet concentration equal to 250 cm−3 the model predicts MVDs ranging from 12 to 20 μm, which corresponds well to the measured range. However, the variation from case to case is not captured by the current cloud microphysics schemes.

Corresponding author address: Bjørn Egil Kringlebotn Nygaard, The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43, Blindern N-0315 Oslo, Norway. E-mail: bjornen@met.no

Abstract

In-cloud icing on aircraft and ground structures can be observed every winter in many countries. In extreme cases ice can cause accidents and damage to infrastructure such as power transmission lines, telecommunication towers, wind turbines, ski lifts, and so on. This study investigates the potential for predicting episodes of in-cloud icing at ground level using a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is applied, with attention paid to the model’s skill to explicitly predict the amount of supercooled cloud liquid water content (SLWC) at the ground level at different horizontal resolutions and with different cloud microphysics schemes. The paper also discusses how well the median volume droplet diameter (MVD) can be diagnosed from the model output. A unique dataset of direct measurements of SLWC and MVD at ground level on a hilltop in northern Finland is used for validation. A mean absolute error of predicted SLWC as low as 0.08 g m−3 is obtained when the highest model resolution is applied (grid spacing equal to 0.333 km), together with the Thompson microphysics scheme. The quality of the SLWC predictions decreases dramatically with decreasing model resolution, and a systematic difference in predictive skill is found between the cloud microphysics schemes applied. A comparison between measured and predicted MVD shows that when prescribing the droplet concentration equal to 250 cm−3 the model predicts MVDs ranging from 12 to 20 μm, which corresponds well to the measured range. However, the variation from case to case is not captured by the current cloud microphysics schemes.

Corresponding author address: Bjørn Egil Kringlebotn Nygaard, The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43, Blindern N-0315 Oslo, Norway. E-mail: bjornen@met.no
Save
Cover Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

  • Brun, R., W. Lewis, P. Perkins, and J. Serafini, 1955: Impingement of cloud droplets on a cylinder and procedure for measuring liquid-water content and droplet sizes in supercooled clouds by rotating multicylinder method. National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA) Rep. 1215, 43 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Drage, M., and G. Hauge, 2007: Atmospheric icing in a coastal mountainous terrain. Measurements and numerical simulations, a case study. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 53 (2), 150–161.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fikke, S. M., J. E. Kristjánsson, and B. E. K. Nygaard, 2008: Modern meteorology and atmospheric icing. Atmospheric Icing of Power Networks, M. Farzaneh, Ed., Springer, 1–30.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Finstad, K., E. Lozowski, and L. Makkonen, 1988: On the median volume diameter approximation for droplet collision efficiency. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 4008–4012.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Frohboese, P., and A. Anders, 2007: Effects of icing on wind turbine fatigue loads. J. Phys.: Conf. Ser., 75, 012061, doi:10.1088/1742-6596/75/1/012061.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gent, R. W., N. P. Dart, and J. T. Cansdale, 2000: Aircraft icing. Philos. Trans. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 358, 2873–2911.

  • Harstveit, K., 2002: Using routine meteorological data from airfields to produce a map of ice risk zones in Norway. Proc. 10th Int. Workshop on Atmospheric Icing of Structures, Brno, Czech Republic, paper 8.1, 8 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Jasinski, W., S. Noe, M. Selig, and M. Bragg, 1998: Wind turbine performance under icing conditions. Trans. Amer. Soc. Mech. Eng. J. Sol. Energy Eng., 120, 60–65.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Makkonen, L., 1984: Modeling of ice accretion on wires. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23, 929–939.

  • Makkonen, L., 1992: Analysis of rotating multicylinder data in measuring cloud-droplet size and liquid water content. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 9, 258–263.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Makkonen, L., 2000: Models for the growth of rime, glaze, icicles and wet snow on structures. Philos. Trans. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 358, 2913–2939.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Makkonen, L., and J. Stallabrass, 1987: Experiments on the cloud droplet collision efficiency of cylinders. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26, 1406–1411.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Makkonen, L., T. Laakso, M. Marjaniemi, and K. Finstad, 2001a: Modelling and prevention of ice accretion on wind turbines. Wind Eng., 25, 3–21.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Makkonen, L., P. Lehtonen, and L. Helle, 2001b: Anemometry in icing conditions. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 18, 1457–1469.

  • Miles, N., J. Verlinde, and E. Clothiaux, 2000: Cloud droplet size distributions in low-level stratiform clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 295–311.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Morrison, H., and J. Pinto, 2005: Mesoscale modeling of springtime Arctic mixed-phase stratiform clouds using a new two-moment bulk microphysics scheme. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3683–3704.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Morrison, H., G. Thompson, and V. Tatarskii, 2009: Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line: Comparison of one- and two-moment schemes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 991–1007.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mulherin, N., 1998: Atmospheric icing and communication tower failure in the United States. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 27, 91–104.

  • Qiang, H., W. Jiahong, and O. Mingyong, 2005: Analysis on accidents caused by icing damage in Hunan power grid in 2005 and its countermeasures. Power Syst. Technol. Beijing, 29, 16.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rogers, E., T. Black, B. Ferrier, Y. Lin, D. Parrish, and G. DiMego, 2001: Changes to the NCEP Meso Eta Analysis and Forecast System: Increase in resolution, new cloud microphysics, modified precipitation assimilation, modified 3DVAR analysis. NWS Tech. Procedures Bull. 488, 15 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rogers, E., and Coauthors, 2005: The NCEP North American mesoscale modeling system: Final Eta Model/analysis changes and preliminary experiments using the WRF-NMM. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4B.5. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/techprogram/paper_94707.htm.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Skamarock, W., J. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. Gill, D. Barker, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers, 2005: A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2. NCAR Tech. Note 468, 88 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sundin, E., and L. Makkonen, 1998: Ice loads on a lattice tower estimated by weather station data. J. Appl. Meteor., 37, 523–529.

  • Thompson, G., R. Rasmussen, and K. Manning, 2004: Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part I: Description and sensitivity analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 519–542.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Thompson, G., P. Field, R. Rasmussen, and W. Hall, 2008: Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part II: Implementation of a new snow parameterization. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 5095–5115.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Thompson, G., B. Nygaard, L. Makonnen, and S. Dierer, 2009: Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to predict ground/structural icing. Proc. 13th Int. Workshop on Atmospheric Icing of Structures, Andermatt, Switzerland, Meteotest, 8 pp. [Available online at http://www.iwais2009.ch/index.php?id=44.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Thorkildson, R., K. Jones, and M. Emery, 2009: In-cloud icing in the Columbia basin. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 4369–4381.

  • Wagner, T., U. Peil, and C. Borri, 2009: Numerical investigation of conductor bundle icing. Proc. Fifth African and European Conference on Wind Engineering, Florence, Italy, International Association for Wind Engineering, 9 pp. [Available online at http://www.iawe.org/Proceedings/5EACWE/058.pdf.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1174 307 26
PDF Downloads 1100 288 29