Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Statistical Prediction of the Storm Surge Associated with Cool-Weather Storms at the Battery, New York

H. Salmun Hunter College of the City University of New York, New York, New York

Search for other papers by H. Salmun in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
A. Molod University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, Maryland

Search for other papers by A. Molod in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
K. Wisniewska Hunter College of the City University of New York, New York, New York

Search for other papers by K. Wisniewska in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
F. S. Buonaiuto Hunter College of the City University of New York, New York, New York

Search for other papers by F. S. Buonaiuto in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Feb 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2459.1
Page(s):
273–282
Restricted access

Abstract

The winter and early spring weather in the New York City metropolitan region is highly influenced by extratropical storm systems, and the storm surge associated with these systems is one of the main factors contributing to inundation of coastal areas. This study demonstrates the predictive capability of an established statistical relationship between the “storm maximum” storm surge associated with an extratropical storm system and the “average maximum” significant wave height during that storm. Data from publicly available retrospective forecasts of sea level pressure and wave heights, along with a regression equation for storm surge, were used to predict the storm-maximum storm surge for 41 storms in the New York metropolitan region during the period from February 2005 to December 2008. The statistical storm-surge estimates were compared with the surge values predicted by NOAA’s extratropical storm-surge model and NOAA’s operational surge forecast, which includes an error correction, and with water gauge observations taken at the Battery, located at the southern tip of Manhattan Island, New York. The mean difference between the statistical surge prediction and the observed values is shown to be smaller than the difference between NOAA’s deterministic surge prediction and the observed surge at the 95% significance level and to be statistically indistinguishable from the difference between NOAA’s operational surge forecast and the observed values of surge. These statistical estimates can be used as part of a system for predicting coastal flooding.

* Current affiliation: University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland

Corresponding author address: Haydee Salmun, Hunter College of the City University of New York, 695 Park Ave., New York, NY 10065. Email: hsalmun@hunter.cuny.edu

Abstract

The winter and early spring weather in the New York City metropolitan region is highly influenced by extratropical storm systems, and the storm surge associated with these systems is one of the main factors contributing to inundation of coastal areas. This study demonstrates the predictive capability of an established statistical relationship between the “storm maximum” storm surge associated with an extratropical storm system and the “average maximum” significant wave height during that storm. Data from publicly available retrospective forecasts of sea level pressure and wave heights, along with a regression equation for storm surge, were used to predict the storm-maximum storm surge for 41 storms in the New York metropolitan region during the period from February 2005 to December 2008. The statistical storm-surge estimates were compared with the surge values predicted by NOAA’s extratropical storm-surge model and NOAA’s operational surge forecast, which includes an error correction, and with water gauge observations taken at the Battery, located at the southern tip of Manhattan Island, New York. The mean difference between the statistical surge prediction and the observed values is shown to be smaller than the difference between NOAA’s deterministic surge prediction and the observed surge at the 95% significance level and to be statistically indistinguishable from the difference between NOAA’s operational surge forecast and the observed values of surge. These statistical estimates can be used as part of a system for predicting coastal flooding.

* Current affiliation: University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland

Corresponding author address: Haydee Salmun, Hunter College of the City University of New York, 695 Park Ave., New York, NY 10065. Email: hsalmun@hunter.cuny.edu

Save
Cover Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

  • Blumberg, A. F., and G. L. Mellor, 1987: A description of a three-dimensional coastal ocean circulation model. Three-Dimensional Coastal Ocean Models, Vol. 4, Coastal and Estuarine Sciences, N. Heaps, Ed., Amer. Geophys. Union, 1–16.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bosilovich, M., 2008: NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications: Integrating Earth observations. Earthzine, September 2008. [Available online at http://www.earthzine.org/2008/09/26/nasas-modern-era-retrospective-analysis/].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bretschneider, C. L., 1951: Revised wave forecasting curves and procedures. U.S. Navy Tech. Rep. 155-47, 28 pp.

  • Charles, M. E., and B. A. Colle, 2009: Verification of extratropical cyclones within the NCEP operational models. Part I: Analysis errors and short-term NAM and GFS forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 24 , 1173–1190.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Colle, B. A., F. Buonaiuto, M. J. Bowman, R. E. Wilson, R. Flood, R. Hunter, A. Mintz, and D. Hill, 2008: New York City’s vulnerability to coastal flooding: Storm surge modeling of past cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89 , 829–841.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • DeGaetano, A. T., 2008: Predictability of seasonal east coast winter storm surge impacts with application to New York’s Long Island. Meteor. Appl., 15 , 231–242.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Harris, D. L., 1962: The equivalence between certain statistical prediction methods and linearized dynamical methods. Mon. Wea. Rev., 90 , 331–340.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Harris, D. L., and A. Angelo, 1963: A regression model for storm surge prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 91 , 710–726.

  • Jelesnianski, C. P., J. Chen, and W. A. Shafer, 1992: SLOSH: Sea, lake, and overland surges from hurricanes. NOAA Tech. Rep. NWS 48, 71 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ji, M., F. Aikman III, and C. Lozano, 2010: Toward improved operational surge and inundation forecasts and coastal warnings. Nat. Hazards, 53 , 195–203. doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9414-z.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kim, S-C., J. Chen, and W. A. Shaffer, 1996: An operational forecast model for extratropical storm surges along the U.S. east coast. Preprints, Conf. on Coastal Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 281–286.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Luettich, R. A., J. J. Westerink, and N. W. Scheffner, 1992: ADCIRC: Advanced three-dimensional circulation model for shelves, coasts, and estuaries—Report 1: Theory and methodology. U.S. Army Coastal Hydraulic Laboratory, Tech. Rep. DRP-92-6, 143 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pachauri, R. K., and Coauthors, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Cambridge University Press, 104 pp. [Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pore, N. A., W. S. Richardson, and H. P. Perrotti, 1974: Forecasting extratropical storm surges for the northeast coast of the United States. NWS Tech. Memo. 50, 70 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Salmun, H., A. Molod, F. Buonaiuto, K. Wisniewska, and K. Clarke, 2009: East Coast cool-weather storms in the New York metropolitan region. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48 , 2320–2330.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Simmons, A. J., and A. Hollingsworth, 2002: Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128 , 647–677.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Tancredo, A. E., 1958: A method for forecasting the maximum surge at Boston due to extratropical storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 86 , 197–200.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 210 124 1
PDF Downloads 85 36 1