Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Diagnostic Study of the Effects of a Large City on Heavy Rainfall as Revealed by an Ensemble Simulation: A Case Study of Central Tokyo, Japan

Tomohiko Inamura Graduate School of Urban Environmental Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, Japan

Search for other papers by Tomohiko Inamura in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Takeki Izumi Graduate School of Urban Environmental Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, Japan

Search for other papers by Takeki Izumi in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Hiroshi Matsuyama Graduate School of Urban Environmental Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, Japan

Search for other papers by Hiroshi Matsuyama in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Mar 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2553.1
Page(s):
713–728
Restricted access

Abstract

This study was undertaken to investigate the effects of a large city on heavy rainfall in Tokyo, Japan, based on an ensemble simulation with a large number of members. An ensemble simulation (24 members) of eight brief heavy rainfall events that occurred from 1999 to 2007 was performed. The ensemble simulation was performed using five objective analysis datasets [Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis (JRA-25), Regional Analysis (RANAL), NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis (NCEP-FNL), NCEP–Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2 (NCEP/DOE-R2), and Global Analysis (GANAL)]. Land-use distributions of two types were prepared for numerical simulations: actual land use and virtual land use, in which all urban land use was converted to vegetation. Each member was simulated using actual land use and virtual land use. The effects of the urban area were then assessed by comparing the results of these simulations. Results indicate no large differences in the wind systems of the Kanto plain (roughly 100 km × 100 km), where Tokyo is located, even if cities were converted entirely to vegetation. The influence of cities on wind systems of this scale was negligible. However, changes of wind convergence were found leeward of the urban area, which increased the horizontal vapor flux there. The precipitation also increased there due to the urban effects, despite the decrease in vertical vapor flux from the land surface. It is concluded that urban effects for Tokyo alter the wind characteristics leeward of the urban area and develop wind convergence and rainfall there.

* Research fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo, Japan

Corresponding author address: Tomohiko Inamura, Graduate School of Urban Environmental Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University, 1-1 Minami-Osawa, Hachioji, Tokyo 192-0397, Japan. Email: inamura-tomohiko@ed.tmu.ac.jp

Abstract

This study was undertaken to investigate the effects of a large city on heavy rainfall in Tokyo, Japan, based on an ensemble simulation with a large number of members. An ensemble simulation (24 members) of eight brief heavy rainfall events that occurred from 1999 to 2007 was performed. The ensemble simulation was performed using five objective analysis datasets [Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis (JRA-25), Regional Analysis (RANAL), NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis (NCEP-FNL), NCEP–Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2 (NCEP/DOE-R2), and Global Analysis (GANAL)]. Land-use distributions of two types were prepared for numerical simulations: actual land use and virtual land use, in which all urban land use was converted to vegetation. Each member was simulated using actual land use and virtual land use. The effects of the urban area were then assessed by comparing the results of these simulations. Results indicate no large differences in the wind systems of the Kanto plain (roughly 100 km × 100 km), where Tokyo is located, even if cities were converted entirely to vegetation. The influence of cities on wind systems of this scale was negligible. However, changes of wind convergence were found leeward of the urban area, which increased the horizontal vapor flux there. The precipitation also increased there due to the urban effects, despite the decrease in vertical vapor flux from the land surface. It is concluded that urban effects for Tokyo alter the wind characteristics leeward of the urban area and develop wind convergence and rainfall there.

* Research fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo, Japan

Corresponding author address: Tomohiko Inamura, Graduate School of Urban Environmental Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University, 1-1 Minami-Osawa, Hachioji, Tokyo 192-0397, Japan. Email: inamura-tomohiko@ed.tmu.ac.jp

Save
Cover Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

  • Bornstein, R., and Q. Lin, 2000: Urban heat islands and summertime convective thunderstorms in Atlanta: Three case studies. Atmos. Environ., 34 , 507–516.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Changnon, S. A., 1968: The LaPorte weather anomaly—Fact or fiction? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 49 , 4–11.

  • Changnon, S. A., R. G. Semonin, A. H. Auer, R. R. Braham, and J. M. Hales, 1981: METROMEX: A Review and Summary. Meteor. Monogr., No. 40, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chen, C., and W. R. Cotton, 1983: A one-dimensional simulation of the stratocumulus-capped mixed layer. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 25 , 289–321.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fujibe, F., 2003: Long-term surface wind changes in the Tokyo metropolitan area in the afternoon of sunny days in the warm season. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 81 , 141–149.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fujibe, F., K. Sakagami, K. Chubachi, and K. Yamashita, 2002: Surface wind patterns in Tokyo in the preceding afternoon short-time heavy rainfall of midsummer days (in Japanese with English abstract). Tenki, 49 , 395–405.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Guo, X., D. Fu, and J. Wang, 2006: Mesoscale convective precipitation system modified by urbanization in Beijing City. Atmos. Res., 82 , 112–126.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hand, L. M., and J. M. Shepherd, 2009: An investigation of warm-season spatial rainfall variability in Oklahoma City: Possible linkages to urbanization and prevailing wind. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48 , 251–269.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Holt, T., and J. Pullen, 2007: Urban canopy modeling of the New York City metropolitan area: A comparison and validation of single- and multilayer parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135 , 1906–1930.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Holt, T., J. Pullen, and C. H. Bishop, 2009: Urban and ocean ensembles for improved meteorological and dispersion modelling of the coastal zone. Tellus, 61A , 232–249.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Huff, F. A., and S. A. Changnon, 1972: Climatological assessment of urban effects on precipitation at St. Louis. J. Appl. Meteor., 11 , 823–842.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Inamura, T., T. Izumi, and H. Matsuyama, 2009: Effects of large cities on wind systems over the Kanto plain when heavy rainfall occurred in Tokyo (in Japanese with English abstract). J. Japan Soc. Civil Eng. Div. A, 65 , 915–931.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kalnay, E., 2003: Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability. Cambridge University Press, 341 pp.

  • Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S. K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83 , 1631–1643.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kanda, M., Y. Inoue, and I. Uno, 2001: Numerical study on cloud lines over an urban street in Tokyo. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 98 , 251–273.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kaufmann, R. K., K. C. Seto, A. Schneider, Z. Liu, L. Zhou, and W. Wang, 2007: Climate response to rapid urban growth: Evidence of a human-induced precipitation deficit. J. Climate, 20 , 2299–2306.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kishtawal, C. M., D. Niyogi, M. Tewari, R. A. Pielke Sr., and J. M. Shepherd, 2010: Urbanization signature in the observed heavy rainfall climatology over India. Int. J. Climatol., 30 , 1908–1916. doi:10.1002/joc.2044.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Klemp, J. B., and R. B. Wilhelmson, 1978: The simulation of three-dimensional convective storm dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 35 , 1070–1096.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kusaka, H., and F. Kimura, 2004: Coupling a single-layer urban canopy model with a simple atmospheric model: Impact on urban heat island simulation for an idealized case. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82 , 67–80.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kusaka, H., F. Kimura, K. Nawata, T. Hanyu, and Y. Miya, 2009: The chink in the armor: Questioning the reliability of conventional sensitivity experiments in determining urban effects on precipitation patterns. Proc. Seventh Int. Conf. on Urban Climate, Yokohama, Japan, Tokyo Institute of Technology, B12-2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Landsberg, H. E., 1970: Man-made climatic changes. Science, 170 , 1265–1274.

  • Lilly, D. K., 1962: On the numerical simulation of buoyant convection. Tellus, 14 , 148–172.

  • Matheson, M. A., and Y. Ashie, 2008: The effect of changes of urban surfaces on rainfall phenomenon as determined by using a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86 , 733–751.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mellor, G. L., and T. Yamada, 1974: A hierarchy of turbulence closure models for planetary boundary layers. J. Atmos. Sci., 31 , 1791–1806.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mesinger, F., and A. Arakawa, 1976: Numerical methods used in atmospheric models. GARP Publ. Series 14, WMO/ICSU Joint Organizing Committee, 64 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mölders, N., and M. A. Olson, 2004: Impact of urban effects on precipitation in high latitudes. J. Hydrometeor., 5 , 409–429.

  • Moteki, Q., K. Ito, K. Souma, A. Sakakibara, K. Tsuboki, T. Kato, K. Tanaka, and S. Ikebuchi, 2005: Estimation of effects of existence of urban on development of cumulonimbus clouds using atmosphere-land coupled model of CReSiBUC. Annu. Disaster Prev. Res. Inst. Kyoto Univ., 48C , 197–208.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Niyogi, D., T. Holt, S. Zhong, P. C. Pyle, and J. Basara, 2006: Urban and land surface effects on the 30 July 2003 mesoscale convective system event observed in the southern Great Plains. J. Geophys. Res., 111 , D19107. doi:10.1029/2005JD006746.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Onogi, K., and Coauthors, 2007: The JRA-25 reanalysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85 , 369–432.

  • Parrish, D. F., and J. C. Derber, 1992: The National Meteorological Center’s spectral statistical–interpolation analysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120 , 1747–1763.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pielke, R. A., and Coauthors, 1992: A comprehensive meteorological modeling system—RAMS. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 49 , 69–91.

  • Rosenfeld, D., J. Dai, X. Yu, Z. Yao, X. Xu, X. Yang, and C. Du, 2007: Inverse relations between amounts of air pollution and orographic precipitation. Science, 315 , 1396–1398.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rosenfeld, D., W. L. Woodley, D. Axisa, E. Freud, J. G. Hudson, and A. Givati, 2008: Aircraft measurements of the impacts of pollution aerosols on clouds and precipitation over the Sierra Nevada. J. Geophys. Res., 113 , D15203. doi:10.1029/2007JD009544.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rozoff, C. M., W. R. Cotton, and J. O. Adegoke, 2003: Simulation of St. Louis, Missouri, land use impacts on thunderstorms. J. Appl. Meteor., 42 , 716–738.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sato, N., and M. Takahashi, 2000: Long-term changes in the properties of summer precipitation in the Tokyo area (in Japanese with English abstract). Tenki, 47 , 643–648.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sawada, Y., and H. Takahashi, 2007: Relationship between the intensity of convective rainfall in central Tokyo and the distribution of surface temperature and wind systems over the Kanto plain in summer (in Japanese with English abstract). Geogr. Rev. Japan, 80 , 70–86.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Shem, W., and M. Shepherd, 2009: On the impact of urbanization on summertime thunderstorms in Atlanta: Two numerical model case studies. Atmos. Res., 92 , 172–189.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Shepherd, J. M., H. Pierce, and A. J. Negri, 2002: Rainfall modification by major urban areas: Observations from spaceborne rain radar on the TRMM satellite. J. Appl. Meteor., 41 , 689–701.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Shepherd, J. M., M. Carter, M. Manyin, D. Messen, and S. Burian, 2010: The impact of urbanization on current and future coastal precipitation: A case study for Houston. Environ. Plann., 37B , 284–304.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Smagorinsky, J., 1963: General circulation experiments with the primitive equations. Part I. The basic experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 91 , 99–164.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Thielen, J., W. Wobrock, A. Gadian, P. G. Mestayer, and J. D. Creutin, 2000: The possible influence of urban surfaces on rainfall development: A sensitivity study in 2D in the meso-γ-scale. Atmos. Res., 54 , 15–39.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Tremback, C. J., 1990: Numerical simulation of a mesoscale convective complex: Model development and numerical results. Ph.D. dissertation, Atmos. Sci. Paper 465, Colorado State University, 247 pp.

  • Tripoli, G. J., 1992: An explicit three-dimensional nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 49 , 229–254.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Trusilova, K., M. Jung, and G. Churkina, 2009: On climate impacts of a potential expansion of urban land in Europe. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48 , 1971–1980.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Walko, R. L., W. R. Cotton, M. P. Meyers, and J. Y. Harrington, 1995: New RAMS cloud microphysics parameterization. Part I: The single-moment scheme. Atmos. Res., 38 , 29–62.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Walko, R. L., and Coauthors, 2000: Coupled atmosphere–biophysics–hydrology models for environmental modeling. J. Appl. Meteor., 39 , 931–944.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zhang, H., K. Hanaki, N. Sato, T. Izumi, and T. Aramaki, 2008: Modified RAMS-Urban Canopy model for heat island simulation in Chongqing, China. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47 , 509–524.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 306 104 15
PDF Downloads 227 72 7