• Adlerman, E. J., and K. K. Droegemeier, 2002: The sensitivity of numerically simulated cyclic mesocyclogenesis to variations in model physical and computational parameters. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 26712691.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bryan, G. H., J. C. Wyngaard, and J. M. Fritsch, 2003: Resolution requirements for the simulation of deep moist convection. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 23942416.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Colle, B. A., K. J. Westrick, and C. F. Mass, 1999: Evaluation of MM5 and Eta-10 precipitation forecasts over the Pacific Northwest during the cool season. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 137154.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Daly, C., R. P. Neilson, and D. L. Phillips, 1994: A statistical–topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. J. Appl. Meteor., 33, 140158.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Davis, C., and F. Carr, 2000: Summary of the 1998 workshop on mesoscale model verification. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 809819.

  • Dooge, J. C. I., 1973: Linear theory of hydrologic systems. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture Tech. Bull. 1468, 267–293.

  • Doyle, J. D., 1997: The influence of mesoscale orography on a coastal jet and rainband. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 14651488.

  • Fleury, P., V. Plagnes, and M. Bakalowicz, 2007: Modelling of the functioning of karst aquifers with a reservoir model: Application to Fontaine de Vaucluse (South of France). J. Hydrol., 345, 3849.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gilad, D., and J. Bonne, 1990: Snowmelt of Mt. Hermon and its contribution to the sources of the Jordan River. J. Hydrol., 114, 115.

  • Grell, G. A., L. Schade, R. Knoche, A. Pfeiffer, and J. Egger, 2000: Nonhydrostatic climate simulations of precipitation over complex terrain. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 29 59529 608.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gur, D., M. Bar-Matthews, and E. Sass, 2003: Hydrochemistry of the main Jordan River sources: Dan, Banias, and Kezinim springs, north Hula valley. Israel. Isr. J. Earth Sci., 52, 155178.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Halfon, N., 2008: Spatial patterns of precipitation in Israel and their synoptic characteristics. Ph.D. thesis, University of Haifa, 185 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hartmann, A., M. Kralik, F. Humer, J. Lange, and M. Weiler, 2011: Identification of a karst system’s intrinsic hydrodynamic parameters: Upscaling from single springs to the whole aquifer. Environ. Earth Sci., doi:10.1007/s12665-011-1033-9, in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hay, L. E., M. P. Clark, R. L. Wilby, W. J. Gutowski, G. H. Leavesley, Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, and E. S. Takle, 2002: Use of regional climate model output for hydrologic simulations. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 571590.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hay, L. E., M. P. Clark, M. Pagowski, G. H. Leavesley, and W. J. Gutowski, 2006: One-way coupling of an atmospheric and a hydrologic model in Colorado. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 569589.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hong, S.-Y., and J.-O. J. Lim, 2006: The WRF single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WSM6). J. Kor. Meteor. Soc., 42, 129151.

  • Hong, S.-Y., K.-S. S. Lim, Y.-H. Lee, J.-C. Ha, H.-W. Kim, S.-J. Ham, and J. Dudhia, 2010: Evaluation of the WRF double-moment 6-class microphysics scheme for precipitating convection. Adv. Meteor., 2010, 707253, doi:10.1155/2010/707253.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jukic, D., and V. Denic-Jukic, 2009: Groundwater balance estimation in karst by using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. J. Hydrol., 373, 302315.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, M. E. Baldwin, and D. R. Bright, 2006: Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 167181.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kain, J. S., and Coauthors, 2008: Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 931952.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Katzfey, J. J., 1995: Simulation of extreme New Zealand precipitation events. Part I: Sensitivity to orography and resolution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 737754.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kessler, A., and U. Kafri, 2007: Application of a cell model for operational management of the Na’aman groundwater basin, Israel. Isr. J. Earth Sci., 56, 2946.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Le Moine, N., V. Andréassian, and T. Mathevet, 2008: Confronting surface- and groundwater balances on the La Rochefoucauld-Touvre karstic system (Charente, France). Water Resour. Res., 44, W03403, doi:10.1029/2007WR005984.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Leung, L. R., and Y. Qian, 2003: The sensitivity of precipitation and snowpack simulations to model resolution via nesting in regions of complex terrain. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 10251043.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lin, C. A., L. Wen, M. Beland, and D. Chaumont, 2002: A coupled atmospheric–hydrological modeling study of the 1996 Ha! Ha! River basin flash flood in Québec, Canada. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1026, doi:10.1029/2001GL013827.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, Y., and Coauthors, 2008a: The operational mesogamma-scale analysis and forecast system of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part I: Overview of the modeling system, the forecast products, and how the products are used. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 10771092.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, Y., and Coauthors, 2008b: The operational mesogamma-scale analysis and forecast system of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part II: Inter-range comparison of the accuracy of model analyses and forecasts. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 10931104.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Martin, G., 1996: A dramatic example of the importance of detailed model terrain in producing accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts for southern California. National Weather Service Western Region Tech. Attachment 96-07, 9 pp. [Available from Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89512.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mass, C. F., D. Ovens, K. Westrick, and B. A. Colle, 2002: Does increasing horizontal resolution produce more skillful forecasts? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 407430.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McQueen, J. T., R. R. Draxler, and G. D. Rolph, 1995: Influence of grid size and terrain resolution on wind field predictions from an operational mesoscale model. J. Appl. Meteor., 34, 21662181.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mekorot Watershed Unit, 2008: The water, solutes and heat balances of Lake Kinneret (in Hebrew). Mekorot Water Supply Co. Annual Rep., Sapir Site, Israel, 41 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neiman, J. N., P. J. Ralph, A. B. White, D. E. Kingsmill, and P. O. G. Persson, 2002: The statistical relationship between upslope flow and rainfall in California’s coastal mountains: Observations during CALJET. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 14681492.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pan, L. L., S.-H. Chen, D. Cayan, M.-Y. Lin, Q. Hart, M.-H. Zhang, Y. Liu, and J. Wang, 2010: Influences of climate change on California and Nevada regions revealed by a high-resolution dynamical downscaling study. Climate Dyn., 37, 20052020.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pandey, G. R., D. R. Cayan, and K. P. Georgaakakos, 1999: Precipitation structure in the Sierra Nevada of California during winter. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 12 01912 030.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Petch, J. C., A. R. Brown, and M. E. B. Gray, 2002: The impact of horizontal resolution on the simulations of convective development over land. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 20312044.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rimmer, A., and Y. Salingar, 2006: Modeling precipitation-streamflow processes in karst basin: The case of the Jordan River sources, Israel. J. Hydrol., 331, 524542.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rimmer, A., A. Givati, R. Smauels, and P. Alpert, 2011: Using ensemble of climate models to evaluate future water and solutes budgets in Lake Kinneret, Israel. J. Hydrol., 410, 248259.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rosenfeld, D., and H. Farbstein, 1992: Possible influence of desert dust on seedability of clouds in Israel. J. Appl. Meteor., 31, 722731.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Saaroni, H., N. Halfon, B. Ziv, P. Alpert, and H. Kutiel, 2009: Links between the rainfall regime in Israel and location and intensity of Cyprus lows. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 10141025.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Samuels, R., A. Rimmer, A. Hartman, S. Krichak, and P. Alpert, 2010: Climate change impact on Jordan River flow: Downscaling application from a regional climate model. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 860879.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schwartz, C. S., and Coauthors, 2009: Next-day convection-allowing WRF model guidance: A second look at 2-km versus 4-km grid spacing. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 33513372.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seuffert, G., P. Gross, C. Simmer, and E. F. Wood, 2002: The influence of hydrologic modeling on the predicted local weather: Two-way coupling of a mesoscale land surface model and a land surface hydrologic model. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 505523.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Simpson, B., and I. Carmi, 1983: The hydrology of the Jordan River and its tributaries: Hydrographic and isotopic investigation. J. Hydrol., 62, 225242.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sugawara, M., 1995: Tank model. Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, V. P. Singh, Ed., Water Resources Publications, 165–214.

  • Weisman, M., C. Davis, W. Wang, K. Manning, and J. Klemp, 2008: Experiences with 0–36-h explicit convective forecasts with the WRF-ARW model. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 407437.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Westrick, K. J., and C. F. Mass, 2001: An evaluation of a high-resolution hydrometeorological modeling system for prediction of a cool-season flood event, in a coastal mountainous watershed. J. Hydrometeor., 2, 161180.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xue, M., and W. J. Martin, 2006: A high-resolution modeling study of the 24 May 2002 case during IHOP. Part I: Numerical simulation and general evolution of the dryline and convection. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 149171.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Younis, J., S. Anquetin, and J. Thielen, 2008: The benefit of high-resolution operational weather forecasts for flash flood warning. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 10391051.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 266 195 18
PDF Downloads 189 131 13

Using the WRF Model in an Operational Streamflow Forecast System for the Jordan River

View More View Less
  • 1 Israeli Hydrological Service, Israeli Water Authority, Jerusalem, Israel
  • | 2 Weather-It-Is Ltd., Efrat, Israel
  • | 3 National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado
  • | 4 The Lake Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research, Ltd., Migdal, Israel
© Get Permissions Rent on DeepDyve
Restricted access

Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to provide precipitation forecasts during the 2008/09 and 2009/10 winters (wet season) for Israel and the surrounding region where complex terrain dominates. The WRF precipitation prediction has been coupled with the Hydrological Model for Karst Environment (HYMKE) to forecast the upper Jordan River streamflow. The daily WRF precipitation forecasts were verified against the measurements from a dense network of rain gauges in northern and central Israel, and the simulation results using the high-resolution WRF indicated good agreement with the actual measurements. The daily precipitation amount calculated by WRF at rain gauges located in the upper parts of the Jordan River basin showed good agreement with the actual measurements. Numerical experiments were carried out to test the impact of the WRF model resolution and WRF microphysical schemes, to determine an optimal model configuration for this application. Because of orographic forcing in the region, it is necessary to run WRF with a 4–1.3-km grid increment and with sophisticated microphysical schemes that consider liquid water, ice, snow, and graupel to produce quality precipitation predictions. The hydrological modeling system that ingests the high-resolution WRF forecast precipitation produced good results and improved upon the operational streamflow forecast method for the Jordan River that is now in use. The modeling tools presented in this study are used to support the water-resource-assessment process and studies of seasonal hydroclimatic forecasting in this region.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Corresponding author address: Amir Givati, Israeli Hydrological Service, Israeli Water Authority, P.O. Box 36118, Jerusalem 91360, Israel. E-mail: amirg@water.gov.il

Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to provide precipitation forecasts during the 2008/09 and 2009/10 winters (wet season) for Israel and the surrounding region where complex terrain dominates. The WRF precipitation prediction has been coupled with the Hydrological Model for Karst Environment (HYMKE) to forecast the upper Jordan River streamflow. The daily WRF precipitation forecasts were verified against the measurements from a dense network of rain gauges in northern and central Israel, and the simulation results using the high-resolution WRF indicated good agreement with the actual measurements. The daily precipitation amount calculated by WRF at rain gauges located in the upper parts of the Jordan River basin showed good agreement with the actual measurements. Numerical experiments were carried out to test the impact of the WRF model resolution and WRF microphysical schemes, to determine an optimal model configuration for this application. Because of orographic forcing in the region, it is necessary to run WRF with a 4–1.3-km grid increment and with sophisticated microphysical schemes that consider liquid water, ice, snow, and graupel to produce quality precipitation predictions. The hydrological modeling system that ingests the high-resolution WRF forecast precipitation produced good results and improved upon the operational streamflow forecast method for the Jordan River that is now in use. The modeling tools presented in this study are used to support the water-resource-assessment process and studies of seasonal hydroclimatic forecasting in this region.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Corresponding author address: Amir Givati, Israeli Hydrological Service, Israeli Water Authority, P.O. Box 36118, Jerusalem 91360, Israel. E-mail: amirg@water.gov.il
Save