Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Hurricane Clusters in the Vicinity of Florida

Thomas H. Jagger Department of Geography, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

Search for other papers by Thomas H. Jagger in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
and
James B. Elsner Department of Geography, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

Search for other papers by James B. Elsner in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 May 2012
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0107.1
Page(s):
869–877
Restricted access

Abstract

Models that predict annual U.S. hurricane activity assume a Poisson distribution for the counts. Here the authors show that this assumption applied to Florida hurricanes leads to a forecast that underpredicts both the number of years without hurricanes and the number of years with three or more hurricanes. The underdispersion in forecast counts arises from a tendency for hurricanes to arrive in groups along this part of the coastline. The authors then develop an extension to their earlier statistical model that assumes that the rate of hurricane clusters follows a Poisson distribution with cluster size capped at two hurricanes. Hindcasts from the cluster model better fit the distribution of Florida hurricanes conditional on the climate covariates including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation index. Results are similar to models that parameterize the extra-Poisson variation in the observed counts, including the negative binomial and the Poisson inverse Gaussian models. The authors argue, however, that the cluster model is physically consistent with the way Florida hurricanes tend to arrive in groups.

Corresponding author address: Thomas H. Jagger, Dept. of Geography, Rm. 323, Bellamy Bldg., 113 Collegiate Loop, P.O. Box 3062190, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2190. E-mail: tjagger@blarg.net

Abstract

Models that predict annual U.S. hurricane activity assume a Poisson distribution for the counts. Here the authors show that this assumption applied to Florida hurricanes leads to a forecast that underpredicts both the number of years without hurricanes and the number of years with three or more hurricanes. The underdispersion in forecast counts arises from a tendency for hurricanes to arrive in groups along this part of the coastline. The authors then develop an extension to their earlier statistical model that assumes that the rate of hurricane clusters follows a Poisson distribution with cluster size capped at two hurricanes. Hindcasts from the cluster model better fit the distribution of Florida hurricanes conditional on the climate covariates including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation index. Results are similar to models that parameterize the extra-Poisson variation in the observed counts, including the negative binomial and the Poisson inverse Gaussian models. The authors argue, however, that the cluster model is physically consistent with the way Florida hurricanes tend to arrive in groups.

Corresponding author address: Thomas H. Jagger, Dept. of Geography, Rm. 323, Bellamy Bldg., 113 Collegiate Loop, P.O. Box 3062190, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2190. E-mail: tjagger@blarg.net
Save
Cover Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

  • Dunn, P. K., and G. K. Smyth, 2009: DGLM: Double generalized linear models. R package version 1.6.1, 13 pp. [Available online at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/dglm/dglm.pdf.]

  • Elsner, J. B., and C. P. Schmertmann, 1993: Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 345–351.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Elsner, J. B., and T. H. Jagger, 2006: Prediction models for annual U.S. hurricane counts. J. Climate, 19, 2935–2952.

  • Elsner, J. B., B. H. Bossak, and X.-F. Niu, 2001: Secular changes to the ENSO–U.S. hurricane relationship. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4123–4126.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Jagger, T. H., and J. B. Elsner, 2006: Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United States. J. Climate, 19, 3220–3236.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Jarvinen, B. R., C. J. Neumann, and M. A. S. Davis, 1984: A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic basin, 1886–1983: Contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 22, 24 pp. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-NHC-1988-22.pdf.]

  • Jones, P. D., T. Jonsson, and D. Wheeler, 1997: Extension to the North Atlantic oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and south-west Iceland. Int. J. Climatol., 17, 1433–1450.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kossin, J. P., S. J. Camargo, and M. Sitkowski, 2010: Climate modulation of North Atlantic hurricane tracks. J. Climate, 23, 3057–3076.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • McTaggart-Cowan, R., G. D. Deane, L. F. Bosart, C. A. Davis, and T. J. Galarneau Jr., 2008: Climatology of tropical cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic (1948–2004). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1284–1304.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rigby, R. A., and D. M. Stasinopoulos, 2005: Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape, (with discussion). Appl. Stat., 54, 507–554.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ropelewski, C. F., and P. D. Jones, 1987: An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation index. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2161–2165.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Stasinopoulos, M., B. C. A. Rigby, G. Heller, R. Ospina, and N. Motpan, cited 2011: gamlss.dist: Distributions to be used for GAMLSS modelling. R package version 4.0-5. [Available online at http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=gamlss.dist.]

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 242 86 9
PDF Downloads 194 48 5