The Effect of Variable Sea Surface Temperature on Forecasting Sea Fog and Sea Breezes: A Case Study

Yongming Tang Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Abstract

A preliminary study of the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) temporal and spatial variability on regional coastal weather forecasts is described. A high-resolution numerical weather forecast model from the Met Office is run for the U.K. region with hourly updates of SST data obtained from a shelf sea model. When compared with a control run in which SST is maintained with Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) data, it is found that there are significant differences in the coastal-region forecasts for sea breezes and fog formation. The control run underestimates surface temperature and the strength of the sea breeze when compared with the run with hourly SST updates.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Yongming Tang, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom. E-mail: yongming.tang@ecmwf.int

Abstract

A preliminary study of the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) temporal and spatial variability on regional coastal weather forecasts is described. A high-resolution numerical weather forecast model from the Met Office is run for the U.K. region with hourly updates of SST data obtained from a shelf sea model. When compared with a control run in which SST is maintained with Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) data, it is found that there are significant differences in the coastal-region forecasts for sea breezes and fog formation. The control run underestimates surface temperature and the strength of the sea breeze when compared with the run with hourly SST updates.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Yongming Tang, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom. E-mail: yongming.tang@ecmwf.int
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