Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Prediction of September–December Fire in New Caledonia (Southwestern Pacific) Using July Niño-4 Sea Surface Temperature Index

Vincent Moron Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, Aix en Provence, France, and International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York

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Renaud Barbero Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, Aix en Provence, France

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Morgan Mangeas Espace, IRD, Nouméa, New Caledonia, France

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Laurent Borgniet IRSTEA, UR EMAX, Aix en Provence, France

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Thomas Curt IRSTEA, UR EMAX, Aix en Provence, France

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Laure Berti-Equille CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, Aix en Provence, France

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Print Publication:
01 Mar 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-03.1
Page(s):
623–633
Restricted access

Abstract

An empirical statistical scheme for predicting September–December fires in New Caledonia in the southwestern Pacific Ocean region using a cross-validated generalized linear model has been developed for the 2000–10 period. The predictor employs July sea surface temperatures (SST) recorded over the Niño-4 box (5°S–5°N, 160°–210°E), which are closely related to austral spring (September–November) rainfall anomalies across New Caledonia. The correlation between the logarithm of observed and simulated total burned areas across New Caledonia is 0.87. A decrease in the local-scale skill (median correlation between the log of observed and simulated total burned areas in a 20-km radius around a rain gauge = 0.46) around the main town (Nouméa) and its suburbs in the southwest of Grande Terre, and also in northern New Caledonia, could be associated either with a weaker climatic forcing from the Niño-4 SST index or a small-scale climatic forcing not linearly related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. It is more likely that the decrease is tied to the influence of human-driven factors that blur the regional-scale climatic signal mostly associated with central Pacific ENSO events.

Corresponding author address: Pr. Vincent Moron, CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, Europôle méditerranéen de l'Arbois, BP 80, Aix en Provence F-13545, France. E-mail: moron@cerege.fr

Abstract

An empirical statistical scheme for predicting September–December fires in New Caledonia in the southwestern Pacific Ocean region using a cross-validated generalized linear model has been developed for the 2000–10 period. The predictor employs July sea surface temperatures (SST) recorded over the Niño-4 box (5°S–5°N, 160°–210°E), which are closely related to austral spring (September–November) rainfall anomalies across New Caledonia. The correlation between the logarithm of observed and simulated total burned areas across New Caledonia is 0.87. A decrease in the local-scale skill (median correlation between the log of observed and simulated total burned areas in a 20-km radius around a rain gauge = 0.46) around the main town (Nouméa) and its suburbs in the southwest of Grande Terre, and also in northern New Caledonia, could be associated either with a weaker climatic forcing from the Niño-4 SST index or a small-scale climatic forcing not linearly related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. It is more likely that the decrease is tied to the influence of human-driven factors that blur the regional-scale climatic signal mostly associated with central Pacific ENSO events.

Corresponding author address: Pr. Vincent Moron, CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, Europôle méditerranéen de l'Arbois, BP 80, Aix en Provence F-13545, France. E-mail: moron@cerege.fr
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