• Alves, O., and Coauthors, 2003: POAMA: Bureau of Meteorology operational coupled model seasonal forecast system. Proc. National Drought Forum, Brisbane, Australia, Queensland Dept. of Primary Industries, 49–56.

  • Ashok, K., Z. Guan, and T. Yamagata, 2003: Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Australian winter rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1821, doi:10.1029/2003GL017926.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, 2007: El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ashok, K., C.-Y. Tam, and W.-J. Lee, 2009: ENSO Modoki impact on the Southern Hemisphere storm track activity during extended austral winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12705, doi:10.1029/2009GL038847.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barnston, A. G., S. J. Mason, L. Goddard, D. G. Dewitt, and S. E. Zebiak, 2003: Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 17831796.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bretherton, C., M. Widmann, V. Dymnikov, J. Wallace, and I. Blade, 1999: The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J. Climate, 12, 19902009.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ding, Y., and J. C. L. Chan, 2005: The East Asia summer monsoon: An overview. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 89, 117142.

  • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., M. Deque, and J.-P. Piedelievre, 2000: Multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 20692088.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., R. Hagedorn, and T. N. Palmer, 2005: The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting—II. Calibration and combination. Tellus, 57A, 234252.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gong, D. Y., J. Yang, S. J. Kim, Y. Q. Gao, D. Guo, T. J. Zhou, and M. Hu, 2011: Spring Arctic oscillation-East Asian summer monsoon connection through circulation changes over the western North Pacific. Climate Dyn., 37, 21992216, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1041-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gu, W., C. Y. Li, X. Wang, and W. Zhou, 2009: Linkage between Mei-yu precipitation and North Atlantic SST on the decadal timescale. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26, 101108, doi:10.1007/s00376-009-0101-5.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hagedorn, R., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and T. N. Palmer, 2005: The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting—I. Basic concept. Tellus, 57A, 219233.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huang, G., 2004: An index measuring the interannual variation of the East Asian summer monsoon—The EAP index. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 21, 4152.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huang, R., and F. Sun, 1992: Impacts of the tropical western Pacific on the East Asia summer monsoon. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 70, 243256.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jolliffe, I. T., and D. B. Stephenson, 2003: Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science. John Wiley and Sons, 254 pp.

  • Kanamitsu, M., and Coauthors, 2002: NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 16311643.

  • Kang, H., and Coauthors, 2009: Statistical downscaling of precipitation in Korea using multimodel output variables as predictors. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 19281938.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Krishnamurti, T. N., and Coauthors, 1999: Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science, 285, 15481550.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Krishnamurti, T. N., C. M. Kishtawal, D. W. Shin, and C. E. Williford, 2000: Multi-model superensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. J. Climate, 13, 41964216.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, D. Y., C.-Y. Tam, and C.-K. Park, 2008: Effects of multicumulus convective ensemble on East Asian summer monsoon rainfall simulation. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D24111, doi:10.1029/2008JD009847.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, D. Y., K. Ashok, and J.-B. Ahn, 2011: Toward enhancement of prediction skills of multimodel ensemble seasonal prediction: A climate filter concept. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D06116, doi:10.1029/2010JD014610.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, E.-J., J.-G. Jhun, and C.-K. Park, 2005: Remote connection of the northeast Asian summer rainfall variation revealed by a newly defined monsoon index. J. Climate, 18, 43814393.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, W.-J., and Coauthors, cited 2009: APEC Climate Center for Climate Information Services, APCC 2009 Final Rep. [Available online at http://www.apcc21.net/eng/research/pub/repo/japcc040602_lst.jsp.]

  • Li, J., and J. Wang, 2003: A new North Atlantic oscillation index and its variability. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20, 661676.

  • Michaelsen, J., 1987: Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26, 15891600.

  • Nicholls, N., 1989: Sea surface temperatures and Australian winter rainfall. J. Climate, 2, 965973.

  • Nitta, T., 1987: Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 65, 373390.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Palmer, T. N., C. Brankovic, and D. S. Richardson, 2000: A probability and decision-model analysis of PROBOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 20132034.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Palmer, T. N., and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853872.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Peng, P., A. Kumar, H. van den Dool, and A. G. Barnston, 2002: An analysis of multimodel ensemble predictions for seasonal climate anomalies. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4710, doi:10.1029/2002JD002712.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rayner, N. A., E. B. Horton, D. E. Parker, C. K. Folland, and R. B. Hackett, 1996: Version 2.2 of the Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set, 1903–1994. Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Research Tech. Note CRTN74, 35 pp.

  • Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 16091625.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 19, 34833517.

  • Sahai, A. K., R. Chattopadhyay, and B. N. Goswami, 2008: A SST based large multi-model ensemble forecasting system for Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L19705, doi:10.1029/2008GL035461.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Saji, N. H., and T. Yamagata, 2003: Structure of SST and surface wind variability during Indian Ocean dipole mode events: COADS observations. J. Climate, 16, 27352751.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shukla, J., and Coauthors, 2000: Dynamical seasonal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 25932606.

  • Snedecor, G. W., and W. G. Cochran, 1980: Statistical Methods. 7th ed. Iowa State University Press, 507 pp.

  • Spiegel, M. R., and L. J. Stephens, 2008: Schaum’s Outline of Theory and Problems of Statistics. 4th ed. McGraw-Hill, 577 pp.

  • Tanizaki, H., 2006: On small sample properties of permutation tests: A significance test for regression models. Kobe Univ. Econ. Rev., 54, 2740.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tao, S., and L.-X. Chen, 1987: A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. Monsoon Meteorology, C.-P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti, Eds., Oxford University Press, 60–92.

  • Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 1998: The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 12971300.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, B., and Z. Fan, 1999: Choice of south Asian summer monsoon indices. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 629638.

  • Wang, B., and Coauthors, 2008a: How accurately do coupled climate models predict the leading modes of Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variability? Climate Dyn., 30, 605619.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, B., Z. Wu, J. Li, J. Liu, C.-P. Chang, Y. Ding, and G. Wu, 2008b: How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 21, 44494463.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, B., and Coauthors, 2009: Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004). Climate Dyn., 33, 93117.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, X., and S. S. Shen, 1999: Estimation of spatial degrees of freedom of a climate field. J. Climate, 12, 12801291.

  • Wang, Y. F., B. Wang, and J.-H. Oh, 2001: Impacts of the preceding El Niño on the East Asian summer atmospheric circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 79, 575588.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic Press, 467 pp.

  • World Meteorological Organization, 2006: Attachment II-8, Standardised Verification System (SVS) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF). Manual on the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System: WMO-No. 485, Vol. 1. WMO, II.8-1–II.8-17.

  • Wu, Z., B. Wang, J. Li, and F.-F. Jin, 2009: An empirical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D18120, doi:10.1029/2009JD011733.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 25392588.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yun, W.-T., and Coauthors, 2005: A multi-model superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts. Tellus, 57A, 280289.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, Q. Y., S. Y. Tao, and L. T. Chen, 2003: The interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon indices and its association with the pattern of general circulation over East Asia (in Chinese). Acta Meteor. Sin., 61, 559568.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 63 34 4
PDF Downloads 23 12 1

Improvement of Multimodel Ensemble Seasonal Prediction Skills over East Asian Summer Monsoon Region Using a Climate Filter Concept

View More View Less
  • 1 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center, and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
  • | 2 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
  • | 3 Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Restricted access

Abstract

The authors propose the use of a “climate filter” concept to enhance prediction skill of a multimodel ensemble (MME) suite for the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation and temperature at 850 hPa. The method envisages grading models on the basis of the degree of reproducibility of the association of EASM variability with a few relevant climate drivers with the respective model hindcasts for the period 1981–2003. The analysis identifies the previous winter Niño-3.4 and spring North Atlantic Oscillation indices as the most suitable climate drivers in designing a climate filter for evaluating models that replicate the observed teleconnections to EASM well. The results show that the hindcast skills of a new MME with the better-performing models are significantly higher than those from the nonperforming models or from an all-inclusive operational MME.

Corresponding author address: Doo Young Lee, 12 Centum 7-ro, Haeundae-gu, Busan 612-020, South Korea. E-mail: dylee@apcc21.org

Abstract

The authors propose the use of a “climate filter” concept to enhance prediction skill of a multimodel ensemble (MME) suite for the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation and temperature at 850 hPa. The method envisages grading models on the basis of the degree of reproducibility of the association of EASM variability with a few relevant climate drivers with the respective model hindcasts for the period 1981–2003. The analysis identifies the previous winter Niño-3.4 and spring North Atlantic Oscillation indices as the most suitable climate drivers in designing a climate filter for evaluating models that replicate the observed teleconnections to EASM well. The results show that the hindcast skills of a new MME with the better-performing models are significantly higher than those from the nonperforming models or from an all-inclusive operational MME.

Corresponding author address: Doo Young Lee, 12 Centum 7-ro, Haeundae-gu, Busan 612-020, South Korea. E-mail: dylee@apcc21.org
Save