Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific through Data Mining. Part I: Tropical Cyclone Recurvature

Wei Zhang Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, and Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, China

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Yee Leung Department of Geography and Resource Management, and Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, and Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, China

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Johnny C. L. Chan Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Center, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

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Print Publication:
01 Jun 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-045.1
Page(s):
1394–1416
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Abstract

This paper is the first of a two-part series of papers that employs the data-mining approach to analyze tropical cyclone (TC) movement in the western North Pacific Ocean. Part I unravels conditions under which TCs tend to recurve, and Part II uncovers conditions leading to TCs making landfall. Here in Part I, a detailed study is carried out into TC recurvature over the South China Sea and western North Pacific. The investigation focuses on the unraveling of rules governing TC recurvature hidden in TC data. The historical TC track database comprises recurving TCs and straight movers. Potential parameters affecting TC recurvature are categorized into three groups: large-scale circulation, circulations surrounding TCs, and variables characterizing TCs. The tree construction algorithm, C4.5, is applied to classify recurving and straight-moving TCs. Parameters measuring large-scale circulation patterns and characterizing TCs play significant roles in building the classification tree. Altogether, 18 rules are discovered from the processed database. Most of the 18 rules can be explained by existing theories and are supported by various empirical findings on TC recurvatures. Rules governing TC recurvature discovered by the present study contain quantitative descriptions of factors such as composite wind fields, geopotential heights, and deep-layer mean winds that are essential to the understanding, interpretation, and prediction of TC recurvatures.

Corresponding author address: Yee Leung, Dept. of Geography and Resource Management, Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, Hong Kong, China. E-mail: yeeleung@cuhk.edu.hk

Abstract

This paper is the first of a two-part series of papers that employs the data-mining approach to analyze tropical cyclone (TC) movement in the western North Pacific Ocean. Part I unravels conditions under which TCs tend to recurve, and Part II uncovers conditions leading to TCs making landfall. Here in Part I, a detailed study is carried out into TC recurvature over the South China Sea and western North Pacific. The investigation focuses on the unraveling of rules governing TC recurvature hidden in TC data. The historical TC track database comprises recurving TCs and straight movers. Potential parameters affecting TC recurvature are categorized into three groups: large-scale circulation, circulations surrounding TCs, and variables characterizing TCs. The tree construction algorithm, C4.5, is applied to classify recurving and straight-moving TCs. Parameters measuring large-scale circulation patterns and characterizing TCs play significant roles in building the classification tree. Altogether, 18 rules are discovered from the processed database. Most of the 18 rules can be explained by existing theories and are supported by various empirical findings on TC recurvatures. Rules governing TC recurvature discovered by the present study contain quantitative descriptions of factors such as composite wind fields, geopotential heights, and deep-layer mean winds that are essential to the understanding, interpretation, and prediction of TC recurvatures.

Corresponding author address: Yee Leung, Dept. of Geography and Resource Management, Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, Hong Kong, China. E-mail: yeeleung@cuhk.edu.hk
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