Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific through Data Mining. Part II: Tropical Cyclone Landfall

Wei Zhang Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, and Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, China

Search for other papers by Wei Zhang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Yee Leung Department of Geography and Resource Management, and Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, and Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, China

Search for other papers by Yee Leung in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
Johnny C. L. Chan Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Center, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

Search for other papers by Johnny C. L. Chan in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Jun 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-046.1
Page(s):
1417–1432
Restricted access

Abstract

This is the second paper of a two-part series of papers on the analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific Ocean. In this paper, TC landfalls in the South China Sea and western North Pacific basins are investigated through the data-mining approach. On the basis of historical TC archives, the C4.5 algorithm, a classic tree algorithm for classification, has been employed to quantitatively discover rules governing TC landfall. A classification tree, with 14 leaf nodes, has been built. The path from the root node to each leaf node forms a rule. Fourteen rules governing TC landfall across the Chinese coast have been unraveled with respect to the selected attributes having potential influence on TC landfall. The rules are derived by the attributes and splitting values. From the classification tree, split values, such as 27°N latitude, 130°E longitude, 141°E in the west extension index, and 0.289 in the monsoon index have been shown to be useful for TC forecasting. The rules have been justified from the perspective of meteorology and knowledge of TC movement and recurvature (e.g., deep-layer mean winds and large-scale circulation). The research findings are also consistent with existing results concerning TC movement and landfall. Both the unraveled rules and the associated splitting values can provide useful references for the prediction of TC landfall over China.

Corresponding author address: Yee Leung, Dept. of Geography and Resource Management, Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, Hong Kong, China. E-mail: yeeleung@cuhk.edu.hk

Abstract

This is the second paper of a two-part series of papers on the analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific Ocean. In this paper, TC landfalls in the South China Sea and western North Pacific basins are investigated through the data-mining approach. On the basis of historical TC archives, the C4.5 algorithm, a classic tree algorithm for classification, has been employed to quantitatively discover rules governing TC landfall. A classification tree, with 14 leaf nodes, has been built. The path from the root node to each leaf node forms a rule. Fourteen rules governing TC landfall across the Chinese coast have been unraveled with respect to the selected attributes having potential influence on TC landfall. The rules are derived by the attributes and splitting values. From the classification tree, split values, such as 27°N latitude, 130°E longitude, 141°E in the west extension index, and 0.289 in the monsoon index have been shown to be useful for TC forecasting. The rules have been justified from the perspective of meteorology and knowledge of TC movement and recurvature (e.g., deep-layer mean winds and large-scale circulation). The research findings are also consistent with existing results concerning TC movement and landfall. Both the unraveled rules and the associated splitting values can provide useful references for the prediction of TC landfall over China.

Corresponding author address: Yee Leung, Dept. of Geography and Resource Management, Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, Hong Kong, China. E-mail: yeeleung@cuhk.edu.hk
Save
Cover Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

  • Bender, M., R. Tuleya, and Y. Kurihara, 1985: A numerical study of the effect of a mountain range on a landfalling tropical cyclone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 567–583.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bhowmik, S. K. R., S. D. Kotal, and S. R. Kalsi, 2005: An empirical model for predicting the decay of tropical cyclone wind speed after landfall over the Indian region. J. Appl. Meteor., 44, 179–185.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brand, S., and J. Blelloch, 1974: Changes in the characteristics of typhoons crossing the island of Taiwan. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 708–713.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brettschneider, B., 2008: Climatological hurricane landfall probability for the United States. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 704–716.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brunt, A., 1968: Space–time relations of cyclone rainfall in the northeast Australian region. Civil Eng. Trans., 10, 40–46.

  • Chan, J. C. L., and X. D. Liang, 2003: Convective asymmetries associated with tropical cyclone landfall. Part I: f-plane simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1560–1576.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chan, J. C. L., F. M. F. Ko, and Y. M. Lei, 2002: Relationship between potential vorticity tendency and tropical cyclone motion. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1317–1336.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chang, S. W. J., 1982: The orographic effects induced by an island mountain range on propagating tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1255–1270.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chen, T. C., S. Y. Wang, M. C. Yen, and A. J. Clark, 2009: Impact of the intraseasonal variability of the western North Pacific large-scale circulation on tropical cyclone tracks. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 646–666.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Elsberry, R. L., 2004: Monsoon-related tropical cyclones in East Asia. East Asian Monsoon, C.-P. Chang, Ed., Series on Meteorology of East Asia, Vol. 2, World Scientific, 463–498.

  • Elsner, J. B., and K. B. Liu, 2003: Examining the ENSO–typhoon hypothesis. Climate Res., 25, 43–54.

  • Fayyad, U., 1997: Knowledge discovery in databases: An overview. Inductive Logic Programming, N. Lavrač and S. Džeroski, Eds., Springer, 1–16.

  • Fayyad, U., and P. Stolorz, 1997: Data mining and KDD: Promise and challenges. Future Gener. Comput. Syst., 13, 99–115.

  • Fayyad, U., G. Piatetsky-Shapiro, and P. Smyth, 1996: From data mining to knowledge discovery in databases. AI Mag., 17, 37–54.

  • Goh, A. Z.-C., and J. C. L. Chan, 2010: An improved statistical scheme for the prediction of tropical cyclones making landfall in south China. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 587–593.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gray, W. M., 1979: Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, D. B. Shaw, Ed., Royal Meteorological Society, 155–218.

  • Gray, W. M., 1998: The formation of tropical cyclones Meteor. Atmos. Phys.,67, 37–69.

  • Hamuro, M., and Coauthors, 1969: Precipitation bands of Typhoon Vera in 1959 (Part 1). J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 47, 298–308.

  • Han, J., and M. Kamber, 2006: Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques. 2nd ed. Morgan Kaufmann, 770 pp.

  • Harr, P. A., and R. L. Elsberry, 1991: Tropical cyclone track characteristics as a function of large-scale circulation anomalies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1448–1468.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Harr, P. A., and R. L. Elsberry, 1995a: Large-scale circulation variability over the tropical western North Pacific. Part I: Spatial patterns and tropical cyclone characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 1225–1246.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Harr, P. A., and R. L. Elsberry, 1995b: Large-scale circulation variability over the tropical western North Pacific. Part II: Persistence and transition characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 1247–1268.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Holland, G. J., 1983: Tropical cyclone motion—Environmental interaction plus a beta-effect. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 328–342.

  • Holland, G. J., 1993: Tropical cyclone motion. Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, G. Holland, Ed., WMO, 1–46.

  • Lee, C., R. Edson, and W. M. Gray, 1989: Some large-scale characteristics associated with tropical cyclone development in the north Indian Ocean during FGGE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 407–426.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Leung, Y., 2010: Knowledge Discovery in Spatial Data. Springer-Verlag, 360 pp.

  • Li, Y. S., and J. C. L. Chan, 1999: Momentum transports associated with tropical cyclone recurvature. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1021–1037.

  • Liu, K. S., and J. C. L. Chan, 2003: Climatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the south China coast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1650–1662.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Marks, F., and L. Shay, 1998: Landfalling tropical cyclones: Forecast problems and associated research opportunities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 305–323.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Miller, H. J., and J. Han, 2001: Geographic data mining and knowledge discovery: An overview. Geographic Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, H. J. Miller and J. Han, Eds., Taylor and Francis, 3–32.

  • Tuleya, R. E., and Y. Kurihara, 1978: A numerical simulation of the landfall of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 242–257.

  • Tuleya, R. E., M. Bender, and Y. Kurihara, 1984: A simulation study of the landfall of tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 124–136.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Velden, C. S., and L. M. Leslie, 1991: The basic relationship between tropical cyclone intensity and the depth of the environmental steering layer in the Australian region. Wea. Forecasting, 6, 244–253.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wang, B., and Z. Fan, 1999: Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 629–638.

  • Wong, M. L. M., 2007: Modeling the effects of land–sea roughness contrast on tropical cyclone winds. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3249–3264.

  • Wong, M. L. M., and J. C. L. Chan, 2006: Tropical cyclone motion in response to land surface friction. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 1324–1337.

  • Wong, M. L. M., J. C. L. Chan, and W. Zhou, 2008: A simple empirical model for estimating the intensity change of tropical cyclones after landfall along the south China coast. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 326–338.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Wu, L., and B. Wang, 2000: A potential vorticity tendency diagnostic approach for tropical cyclone motion. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1899–1911.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Zhang, W., Y. Leung, and J. C. L. Chan, 2013: The analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the western North Pacific through data mining. Part I: Tropical cyclone recurvature. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 1394–1416.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 444 142 4
PDF Downloads 352 80 4