History of Pacific Northwest Heat Waves: Synoptic Pattern and Trends

Karin A. Bumbaco Office of the Washington State Climatologist, Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

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Kathie D. Dello Oregon Climate Service, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

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Nicholas A. Bond Office of the Washington State Climatologist, Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

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Abstract

A historical record of Pacific Northwest (defined here as west of the Cascade Mountains in Washington and Oregon) heat waves is identified using the U.S. Historical Climate Network, version 2, daily data (1901–2009). Both daytime and nighttime events are examined, defining a heat wave as three consecutive days above the 99th percentile for the maximum and minimum temperature anomalies separately. Although the synoptic characteristics of the daytime and nighttime heat events are similar, they do indicate some differences between the two types of events. Most notable is a stronger influence of downslope warming over the Cascade Mountains for the daytime events versus a more important role of precipitable water content for the nighttime events, presumably through its impact on downward longwave radiative fluxes. Current research suggests that the frequency and duration of heat waves are expected to increase in much of the United States, and analysis of the heat events reveals that a significant, increasing trend in the frequency of the nighttime events is already occurring in the Pacific Northwest. A heat wave occurred in 2009 that set all-time-record maximum temperatures in many locations and ranked as the second strongest daytime event and the longest nighttime event in the record.

Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean Contribution Number 2033.

Corresponding author address: Karin Bumbaco, Office of the Washington State Climatologist, JISAO, University of Washington, Box 355672, Seattle, Washington 98195-5672. E-mail: kbumbaco@u.washington.edu

Abstract

A historical record of Pacific Northwest (defined here as west of the Cascade Mountains in Washington and Oregon) heat waves is identified using the U.S. Historical Climate Network, version 2, daily data (1901–2009). Both daytime and nighttime events are examined, defining a heat wave as three consecutive days above the 99th percentile for the maximum and minimum temperature anomalies separately. Although the synoptic characteristics of the daytime and nighttime heat events are similar, they do indicate some differences between the two types of events. Most notable is a stronger influence of downslope warming over the Cascade Mountains for the daytime events versus a more important role of precipitable water content for the nighttime events, presumably through its impact on downward longwave radiative fluxes. Current research suggests that the frequency and duration of heat waves are expected to increase in much of the United States, and analysis of the heat events reveals that a significant, increasing trend in the frequency of the nighttime events is already occurring in the Pacific Northwest. A heat wave occurred in 2009 that set all-time-record maximum temperatures in many locations and ranked as the second strongest daytime event and the longest nighttime event in the record.

Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean Contribution Number 2033.

Corresponding author address: Karin Bumbaco, Office of the Washington State Climatologist, JISAO, University of Washington, Box 355672, Seattle, Washington 98195-5672. E-mail: kbumbaco@u.washington.edu
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