• Baik, J.-J., , Y.-H. Kim, , and H.-Y. Chun, 2001: Dry and moist convection forced by an urban heat island. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 14621475.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Burian, S. J., , and M. J. Shephard, 2005: Effect of urbanization on the diurnal rainfall pattern in Houston. Hydrol. Processes, 19, 10891103.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Castro, C. L., , R. A. Pielke Sr, ., and G. Leconcini, 2005: Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of value retained and added using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). J. Geophys. Res., 110, D05108, doi:10.1029/2004JD004721.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Changnon, S. A., 1981: METROMEX: A Review and Summary. Meteor. Monogr., No. 40, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 181 pp.

  • Chen, F., , and J. Dudhia, 2001: Coupling an advanced land surface–hydrology model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model description and implementation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 569585.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, F., and et al. , 2011: The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: Development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 273288.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dixon, P. G., , and T. L. Mote, 2003: Patterns and causes of Atlanta’s urban heat island–initiated precipitation. J. Appl. Meteor., 42, 12731284.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dudhia, J., 1989: Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 30773107.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fujibe, F., , K. Sakagami, , K. Chubachi, , and K. Yamashita, 2002: Surface wind patterns preceding short-time heavy rainfall in Tokyo in the afternoon of midsummer days (in Japanese with English abstract). Tenki, 49, 395405.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fujibe, F., , H. Togawa, , and M. Sakata, 2009: Long-term change and spatial anomaly of warm season afternoon precipitation in Tokyo. SOLA, 5, 1720.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gero, A. F., , and A. J. Pitman, 2006: The impact of land cover change on a simulated storm event in the Sydney basin. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 283300.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guo, X., , D. Fu, , and J. Wang, 2006: Mesoscale convective precipitation system modified by urbanization in Beijing city. Atmos. Res., 82, 112126.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Han, J.-Y., , J.-J. Baik, , and A. P. Khain, 2012: A numerical study of urban aerosol impacts on clouds and precipitation. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 504520.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hong, S.-Y., , and H.-L. Pan, 1996: Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 23222339.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hong, S.-Y., , J. Dudhia, , and S.-H. Chen, 2004: A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 23182341.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hong, S.-Y., , Y. Noh, , and J. Dudhia, 2006: A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 23182341.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huff, F. A., , and S. A. Changnon, 1972: Climatological assessment of urban effects on precipitation at St. Louis. J. Appl. Meteor., 11, 823842.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Inamura, T., , T. Izumi, , and H. Matsuyama, 2011: Diagnostic study of the effects of a large city on heavy rainfall as revealed by an ensemble simulation: A case study of central Tokyo, Japan. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 713728.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ishizaki, N. N., and et al. , 2012: Improved performance of simulated Japanese climate with a multi-model ensemble. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90, 235254.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kanda, M., , T. Ishida, , M. Kashima, , and S. Oishi, 2000: Analysis of temporal and spatial change of a convective thunder storm in Tokyo metropolitan using GPS precipitable water: Case study on 23rd August in 1997 (in Japanese with English abstract). Tenki, 47, 715.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kaufmann, R. K., , K. C. Seto, , A. Schneider, , Z. Liu, , L. Zhou, , and W. Wang, 2007: Climate response to rapid urban growth: Evidence of a human-induced precipitation deficit. J. Climate, 20, 29992306.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kusaka, H., , and F. Kimura, 2004a: Coupling single-layer urban canopy model with a simple atmospheric model: Impact on urban heat island simulation for an idealized case. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 6780.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kusaka, H., , and F. Kimura, 2004b: Thermal effects of urban canyon structure on the nocturnal heat island. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 43, 18991910.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kusaka, H., , F. Kimura, , H. Hirakuchi, , and M. Mizutori, 2000: The effects of land-use alteration on the sea breeze and daytime heat island in the Tokyo metropolitan area. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 78, 405420.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kusaka, H., , H. Kondo, , Y. Kikegawa, , and F. Kimura, 2001: A simple single-layer urban canopy model for atmospheric models: Comparison with multi-layer and slab models. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 101, 329358.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kusaka, H., , F. Kimura, , K. Nawata, , T. Hanyu, , and Y. Miya, 2009: The chink in the armor: Questioning the reliability of sensitivity experiments in determining urban effects on precipitation patterns. Proc. Seventh Int. Conf. on Urban Climate, Yokohama, Japan, WMO, B12.2. [Available online at http://www.ide.titech.ac.jp/~icuc7/extended_abstracts/index-web.html.]

  • Kusaka, H., , T. Takata, , and Y. Takane, 2010: Reproducibility of regional climate in central Japan using the 4-km resolution WRF model. SOLA, 6, 113116.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kusaka, H., , F. Chen, , M. Tewari, , J. Dudhia, , D. O. Gill, , M. G. Duda, , W. Wang, , and Y. Miya, 2012a: Numerical simulation of urban heat island effect by the WRF model with 4-km grid increment: An inter-comparison study between the Urban Canopy Model and Slab Model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90B, 3345.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kusaka, H., , M. Hara, , and Y. Takane, 2012b: Urban climate projection by the WRF model at 3-km horizontal grid increment: Dynamical downscaling and predicting heat stress in the 2070’s August for Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya metropolises. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90B, 4763.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lin, C.-Y., , W.-C. Chen, , P.-L. Chang, , and Y.-F. Sheng, 2011: Impact of the urban heat island effect on precipitation over a complex geographic environment in northern Taiwan. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 339353.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Matheson, M. A., , and Y. Ashie, 2008: The effect of changes of urban surfaces on rainfall phenomenon as determined by a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86, 733751.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Miao, S., , F. Chen, , Q. Li, , and S. Fan, 2011: Impacts of urban progress and urbanization on summer precipitation: A case study of heavy rainfall in Beijing on 1 August 2006. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 806825.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mlawer, E. J., , S. J. Taubman, , P. D. Brown, , M. J. Iacono, , and S. A. Clough, 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., 102 (D14), 16 66316 682.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mote, T., , M. C. Lacke, , and M. J. Shepherd, 2007: Radar signatures of the urban effect on precipitation distribution: A case study for Atlanta, Georgia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L20710, doi:10.1029/2007GL031903.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nakanishi, M., , and Y. Hara, 2003: Characteristics of local winds associated with the intensification of short-time rainfall in the Tokyo urban area in the afternoon of summer days (in Japanese). Tenki, 50, 91103.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nakano, K., , M. Nakayoshi, , C. G. V. Alvin, , M. Kanda, , S. Adachi, , and H. Kusaka, 2013: Simulation of localized heavy rain considering the latest urban parameterizations (in Japanese with English abstract). J. Japan Soc. Civil Eng., 69B, 355360.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Niyogi, D., , P. Pyle, , M. Lei, , S. P. Arya, , C. M. Kishtawal, , M. Shepherd, , F. Chen, , and B. Wolfe, 2011: Urban modification of thunderstorms: An observational storm climatology and model case study for the Indianapolis urban region. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 11291144.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Orville, R. E., and et al. , 2001: Enhancement of cloud-to-ground lightning over Houston, Texas. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 25972600.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rosenfeld, D., 2000: Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution. Science, 287, 17931796.

  • Rozoff, C. M., , W. R. Cotton, , and J. O. Adegoke, 2003: Simulation of St. Louis, Missouri, land use impacts on thunderstorms. J. Appl. Meteor., 42, 716738.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seko, H., , Y. Shoji, , and F. Fujibe, 2007: Evolution and airflow of a Kanto thunderstorm on 21 July 1999 (the Nerima heavy rainfall event). J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 455477.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shem, W., , and M. Shepherd, 2009: On the impact of urbanization on summertime thunderstorms in Atlanta: Two numerical model case studies. Atmos. Res., 92, 172189.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shepherd, J. M., , H. Pierce, , and A. J. Negri, 2002: Rainfall modification by major urban areas: Observations from spaceborne rain radar on the TRMM satellite. J. Appl. Meteor., 41, 689701.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shimoju, R., , M. Kakayoshi, , and M. Kanda, 2009: The impact of convergence sea breeze driven by urban geometry and terrain on localized heavy rain in Tokyo (in Japanese with English abstract). Ann. J. Hydraul. Eng., 53, 277282.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shimoju, R., , M. Nakayoshi, , and M. Kanda, 2010: Case analyses of localized heavy rain in Kanto considering urban parameters (in Japanese with English abstract). Ann. J. Hydraul. Eng., 54, 349354.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Skamarock, and et al. , 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+STR, 113 pp.

  • Takahashi, H., , Y. Nakamura, , and H. Suzuki, 2011: Frequency distribution of intense rainfall in the wards of Tokyo and its relationship with the spatial structure of building heights (in Japanese with English abstract). J. Geogr., 120, 359381.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thielen, J., , W. Wobrock, , A. Gadian, , P. G. Mestayer, , and J.-D. Creutin, 2000: The possible influence of urban surfaces on rainfall development: A sensitivity study in 2D in the mesogammascale. Atmos. Res., 54, 1539.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • van den Heever, S. C., , and W. R. Cotton, 2007: Urban aerosol impacts on downwind convective storms. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46, 828850.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Westcott, N. E., 1995: Summertime cloud-to-ground lightning activity around major midwestern urban areas. J. Appl. Meteor., 34, 16331642.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, C. L., , F. Chen, , S. G. Miao, , Q. C. Li, , X. A. Xia, , and C. Y. Xuan, 2009: Impacts of urban expansion and future green planting on summer precipitation in the Beijing metropolitan area. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D02116, doi:10.1029/2008JD010328.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 195 195 42
PDF Downloads 148 148 36

Mechanism of Precipitation Increase with Urbanization in Tokyo as Revealed by Ensemble Climate Simulations

View More View Less
  • 1 Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
  • | 2 Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
  • | 3 Research Institute for Environmental Management Technology, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
  • | 4 Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

This study examines how urbanization affects the precipitation climatology in Tokyo, Japan. A unique aspect of this study is that an ensemble, regional climatological simulation approach is used with sensitivity experiments to reduce uncertainty arising from nonlinearity in the precipitation simulations. Another aspect is that the robustness of the precipitation response is tested with “stress response” simulations with increasing urban forcing. The results show that urbanization causes a robust increase in the amount of precipitation in the Tokyo metropolitan area and a reduction in the inland areas. These anomalies are statistically significant at the 95% and 99% levels in some parts. There is no measureable change in the surrounding rural and ocean areas. These precipitation responses are attributed to an increase of surface sensible heat flux in Tokyo, which destabilizes the atmosphere and induces an anomalous surface low pressure pattern and the convergence of grid-scale horizontal moisture flux. The anomalous convergence of grid-scale horizontal moisture flux is a consequence of urbanization modifying the sea breeze.

Current affiliation: Taiho Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan.

Current affiliation: Japan Weather Association, Tokyo, Japan.

Corresponding author address: Hiroyuki Kusaka, Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan. E-mail: kusaka@ccs.tsukuba.ac.jp

Abstract

This study examines how urbanization affects the precipitation climatology in Tokyo, Japan. A unique aspect of this study is that an ensemble, regional climatological simulation approach is used with sensitivity experiments to reduce uncertainty arising from nonlinearity in the precipitation simulations. Another aspect is that the robustness of the precipitation response is tested with “stress response” simulations with increasing urban forcing. The results show that urbanization causes a robust increase in the amount of precipitation in the Tokyo metropolitan area and a reduction in the inland areas. These anomalies are statistically significant at the 95% and 99% levels in some parts. There is no measureable change in the surrounding rural and ocean areas. These precipitation responses are attributed to an increase of surface sensible heat flux in Tokyo, which destabilizes the atmosphere and induces an anomalous surface low pressure pattern and the convergence of grid-scale horizontal moisture flux. The anomalous convergence of grid-scale horizontal moisture flux is a consequence of urbanization modifying the sea breeze.

Current affiliation: Taiho Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan.

Current affiliation: Japan Weather Association, Tokyo, Japan.

Corresponding author address: Hiroyuki Kusaka, Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan. E-mail: kusaka@ccs.tsukuba.ac.jp
Save