Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning

Azad Henareh Khalyani International Institute of Tropical Forestry, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, San Juan, Puerto Rico
North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina

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William A. Gould International Institute of Tropical Forestry, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, San Juan, Puerto Rico

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Eric Harmsen Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico

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Adam Terando Southeast Climate Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Raleigh, North Carolina

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Maya Quinones International Institute of Tropical Forestry, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, San Juan, Puerto Rico

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Jaime A. Collazo ** U.S. Geological Survey, and North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina

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Print Publication:
01 Feb 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0182.1
Page(s):
265–282
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Abstract

The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning energy demand, and two measures of annual no-rainfall days were used as drought indices. Holdridge life zone classification was used to map the possible ecological effects of climate change. Precipitation is predicted to decline in both model ensembles, but the decrease was more severe in the “regionally consistent” models. The precipitation declines cause gradual and linear increases in drought intensity and extremes. The warming from the 1960–90 period to the 2071–99 period was 4.6°–9°C depending on the global emission scenarios and location. This warming may cause increases in CDD, and consequently increasing energy demands. Life zones may shift from wetter to drier zones with the possibility of losing most, if not all, of the subtropical rain forests and extinction risks to rain forest specialists or obligates.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0182.s1.

Publisher’s Note: This article was revised on 8 April 2016 to correct the institutional affiliation of the fifth author, which was misidentified when originally published.

Corresponding author address: Azad Henareh Khalyani, USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, 1201 Calle Ceiba, Río Piedras, San Juan, PR 00926. E-mail: ahenareh@mtu.edu

Abstract

The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning energy demand, and two measures of annual no-rainfall days were used as drought indices. Holdridge life zone classification was used to map the possible ecological effects of climate change. Precipitation is predicted to decline in both model ensembles, but the decrease was more severe in the “regionally consistent” models. The precipitation declines cause gradual and linear increases in drought intensity and extremes. The warming from the 1960–90 period to the 2071–99 period was 4.6°–9°C depending on the global emission scenarios and location. This warming may cause increases in CDD, and consequently increasing energy demands. Life zones may shift from wetter to drier zones with the possibility of losing most, if not all, of the subtropical rain forests and extinction risks to rain forest specialists or obligates.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0182.s1.

Publisher’s Note: This article was revised on 8 April 2016 to correct the institutional affiliation of the fifth author, which was misidentified when originally published.

Corresponding author address: Azad Henareh Khalyani, USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, 1201 Calle Ceiba, Río Piedras, San Juan, PR 00926. E-mail: ahenareh@mtu.edu
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