Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Two-Meter Temperature and Precipitation from Atmospheric Reanalysis Evaluated for Alaska

Rick Lader Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Geophysical Institute, and International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

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Uma S. Bhatt Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

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John E. Walsh International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

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T. Scott Rupp International Arctic Research Center, and Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

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Peter A. Bieniek International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

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Print Publication:
01 Apr 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0162.1
Page(s):
901–922
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Abstract

Alaska is experiencing effects of global climate change that are due, in large part, to the positive feedback mechanisms associated with polar amplification. The major risk factors include loss of sea ice and glaciers, thawing permafrost, increased wildfires, and ocean acidification. Reanalyses, integral to understanding mechanisms of Alaska’s past climate and to helping to calibrate modeling efforts, are based on the output of weather forecast models that assimilate observations. This study evaluates temperature and precipitation from five reanalyses at monthly and daily time scales for the period 1979–2009. Monthly data are evaluated spatially at grid points and for six climate zones in Alaska. In addition, daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation from reanalyses are compared with meteorological-station data at six locations. The reanalyses evaluated in this study include the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (R1), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), ERA-Interim, and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Maps of seasonal bias and standard deviation, constructed from monthly data, show how the reanalyses agree with observations spatially. Cross correlations between the monthly gridded and daily station time series are computed to provide a measure of confidence that data users can assume when selecting reanalysis data in a region without many surface observations. A review of natural hazards in Alaska indicates that MERRA is the top reanalysis for wildfire and interior-flooding applications. CFSR is the recommended reanalysis for North Slope coastal erosion issues and, along with ERA-Interim, for heavy precipitation in southeastern Alaska.

Corresponding author address: Rick Lader, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 752325, Fairbanks, AK 99775. E-mail: rtladerjr@alaska.edu

Abstract

Alaska is experiencing effects of global climate change that are due, in large part, to the positive feedback mechanisms associated with polar amplification. The major risk factors include loss of sea ice and glaciers, thawing permafrost, increased wildfires, and ocean acidification. Reanalyses, integral to understanding mechanisms of Alaska’s past climate and to helping to calibrate modeling efforts, are based on the output of weather forecast models that assimilate observations. This study evaluates temperature and precipitation from five reanalyses at monthly and daily time scales for the period 1979–2009. Monthly data are evaluated spatially at grid points and for six climate zones in Alaska. In addition, daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation from reanalyses are compared with meteorological-station data at six locations. The reanalyses evaluated in this study include the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (R1), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), ERA-Interim, and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Maps of seasonal bias and standard deviation, constructed from monthly data, show how the reanalyses agree with observations spatially. Cross correlations between the monthly gridded and daily station time series are computed to provide a measure of confidence that data users can assume when selecting reanalysis data in a region without many surface observations. A review of natural hazards in Alaska indicates that MERRA is the top reanalysis for wildfire and interior-flooding applications. CFSR is the recommended reanalysis for North Slope coastal erosion issues and, along with ERA-Interim, for heavy precipitation in southeastern Alaska.

Corresponding author address: Rick Lader, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 752325, Fairbanks, AK 99775. E-mail: rtladerjr@alaska.edu
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Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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