Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events

Thang M. Luong Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, and Centro de la Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico

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Christopher L. Castro Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona

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Hsin-I Chang Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona

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Timothy Lahmers Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona

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David K. Adams Centro de la Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico

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Carlos A. Ochoa-Moya Centro de la Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico

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Print Publication:
01 Sep 2017
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0358.1
Page(s):
2509–2529
Restricted access

Abstract

Long-term changes in North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation intensity in the southwestern United States are evaluated through the use of convective-permitting model simulations of objectively identified severe weather events during “historical past” (1950–70) and “present day” (1991–2010) periods. Severe weather events are the days on which the highest atmospheric instability and moisture occur within a long-term regional climate simulation. Simulations of severe weather event days are performed with convective-permitting (2.5 km) grid spacing, and these simulations are compared with available observed precipitation data to evaluate the model performance and to verify any statistically significant model-simulated trends in precipitation. Statistical evaluation of precipitation extremes is performed using a peaks-over-threshold approach with a generalized Pareto distribution. A statistically significant long-term increase in atmospheric moisture and instability is associated with an increase in extreme monsoon precipitation in observations and simulations of severe weather events, corresponding to similar behavior in station-based precipitation observations in the Southwest. Precipitation is becoming more intense within the context of the diurnal cycle of convection. The largest modeled increases in extreme-event precipitation occur in central and southwestern Arizona, where mesoscale convective systems account for a majority of monsoon precipitation and where relatively large modeled increases in precipitable water occur. Therefore, it is concluded that a more favorable thermodynamic environment in the southwestern United States is facilitating stronger organized monsoon convection during at least the last 20 years.

a Current affiliation: Physical Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Thang Luong, thang.luong@kaust.edu.sa

Abstract

Long-term changes in North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation intensity in the southwestern United States are evaluated through the use of convective-permitting model simulations of objectively identified severe weather events during “historical past” (1950–70) and “present day” (1991–2010) periods. Severe weather events are the days on which the highest atmospheric instability and moisture occur within a long-term regional climate simulation. Simulations of severe weather event days are performed with convective-permitting (2.5 km) grid spacing, and these simulations are compared with available observed precipitation data to evaluate the model performance and to verify any statistically significant model-simulated trends in precipitation. Statistical evaluation of precipitation extremes is performed using a peaks-over-threshold approach with a generalized Pareto distribution. A statistically significant long-term increase in atmospheric moisture and instability is associated with an increase in extreme monsoon precipitation in observations and simulations of severe weather events, corresponding to similar behavior in station-based precipitation observations in the Southwest. Precipitation is becoming more intense within the context of the diurnal cycle of convection. The largest modeled increases in extreme-event precipitation occur in central and southwestern Arizona, where mesoscale convective systems account for a majority of monsoon precipitation and where relatively large modeled increases in precipitable water occur. Therefore, it is concluded that a more favorable thermodynamic environment in the southwestern United States is facilitating stronger organized monsoon convection during at least the last 20 years.

a Current affiliation: Physical Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Thang Luong, thang.luong@kaust.edu.sa
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