Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Ambient Factors Controlling the Wintertime Precipitation Distribution across Mountain Ranges in the Interior Western United States. Part II: Changes in Orographic Precipitation Distribution in a Pseudo–Global Warming Simulation

Xiaoqin Jing Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Bart Geerts Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming

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Yonggang Wang Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas

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Changhai Liu National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Print Publication:
01 Apr 2019
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0173.1
Page(s):
695–715
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Abstract

Two high-resolution (4 km) regional climate simulations over a 10-yr period are conducted to study the changes in wintertime precipitation distribution across mountain ranges in the interior western United States (IWUS) in a warming climate. One simulation represents the current climate, and another represents an ~2050 climate using a pseudo–global warming approach. The climate perturbations are derived from the ensemble mean of 15 global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). These simulations provide an estimate of average changes in wintertime orographic precipitation enhancement and finescale distribution across mountain ranges. The variability in these changes among CMIP5 models is quantified using statistical downscaling relations between orographic precipitation distribution and upstream conditions, developed in Part I. The CMIP5 guidance indicates a robust warming signal (~2 K) over the IWUS by ~2050 but minor changes in relative humidity and cloud-base height. The IWUS simulations reveal a widespread increase in precipitation on account of higher precipitation rates during winter storms in this warmer climate. This precipitation increase is most significant over the mountains rather than on the surrounding plains. The increase in precipitation rate is largely due to an increase in low-level cross-mountain moisture transport. The application of the statistical relations indicates that individual CMIP5 models disagree about the magnitude and distribution of orographic precipitation change in the IWUS, although most agree with the ensemble-mean-predicted orographic precipitation increase.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Bart Geerts, geerts@uwyo.edu

This article has a companion article which can be found at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0291.1

Abstract

Two high-resolution (4 km) regional climate simulations over a 10-yr period are conducted to study the changes in wintertime precipitation distribution across mountain ranges in the interior western United States (IWUS) in a warming climate. One simulation represents the current climate, and another represents an ~2050 climate using a pseudo–global warming approach. The climate perturbations are derived from the ensemble mean of 15 global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). These simulations provide an estimate of average changes in wintertime orographic precipitation enhancement and finescale distribution across mountain ranges. The variability in these changes among CMIP5 models is quantified using statistical downscaling relations between orographic precipitation distribution and upstream conditions, developed in Part I. The CMIP5 guidance indicates a robust warming signal (~2 K) over the IWUS by ~2050 but minor changes in relative humidity and cloud-base height. The IWUS simulations reveal a widespread increase in precipitation on account of higher precipitation rates during winter storms in this warmer climate. This precipitation increase is most significant over the mountains rather than on the surrounding plains. The increase in precipitation rate is largely due to an increase in low-level cross-mountain moisture transport. The application of the statistical relations indicates that individual CMIP5 models disagree about the magnitude and distribution of orographic precipitation change in the IWUS, although most agree with the ensemble-mean-predicted orographic precipitation increase.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Bart Geerts, geerts@uwyo.edu

This article has a companion article which can be found at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0291.1

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