Implications of a Climate-Changed Atmosphere on Cool-Climate Viticulture

Steven R. Schultze Department of Geography, Department of Earth Sciences, University of South Alabama, Mobile, Alabama

Search for other papers by Steven R. Schultze in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
Paolo Sabbatini Department of Horticulture, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan

Search for other papers by Paolo Sabbatini in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

The impact of anthropogenic global warming on viticulture has been thoroughly studied. However, many of the climate projections are limited by the resolution of the models that cannot resolve mesoscale weather patterns, which heavily influence grape production. In this work, data were gathered from the National Center for Atmospheric Research wherein a high-spatiotemporal-resolution (4 km× 4 km, 1 h) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was run from October 2000 to September 2013 over North America using observed data, and again using the atmospheric chemistry of CMIP5 ensemble mean of the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario, creating a pseudo–global warming (PGW) model. Such models are capable of resolving the mesoscale influences that most climate models cannot. Contrasting the observed results to the PGW results allows users to compare “what happened” to “what could have happened.” This analysis was applied to four cool-climate viticultural regions in the United States: two in Michigan, one in upstate New York, and one in Oregon. In the PGW run, hours exposed to extreme heat (>32°C) increase by orders of magnitude. Growing season degree-day (GDD) accumulations increase between 783 and 1057 base 10°C in comparing the models, while growing season average temperatures increase between 4.05° and 5.53°C. Precipitation patterns were also studied. The four regions would no longer classify as “cool climate” and would see growing seasons similar to some of the most productive warm-climate wine-producing regions. The authors consider the opportunities and challenges presented by the potential climate shift for cool-climate and warm-climate viticultural regions.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Steven R. Schultze, schultze@southalabama.edu

Abstract

The impact of anthropogenic global warming on viticulture has been thoroughly studied. However, many of the climate projections are limited by the resolution of the models that cannot resolve mesoscale weather patterns, which heavily influence grape production. In this work, data were gathered from the National Center for Atmospheric Research wherein a high-spatiotemporal-resolution (4 km× 4 km, 1 h) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was run from October 2000 to September 2013 over North America using observed data, and again using the atmospheric chemistry of CMIP5 ensemble mean of the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario, creating a pseudo–global warming (PGW) model. Such models are capable of resolving the mesoscale influences that most climate models cannot. Contrasting the observed results to the PGW results allows users to compare “what happened” to “what could have happened.” This analysis was applied to four cool-climate viticultural regions in the United States: two in Michigan, one in upstate New York, and one in Oregon. In the PGW run, hours exposed to extreme heat (>32°C) increase by orders of magnitude. Growing season degree-day (GDD) accumulations increase between 783 and 1057 base 10°C in comparing the models, while growing season average temperatures increase between 4.05° and 5.53°C. Precipitation patterns were also studied. The four regions would no longer classify as “cool climate” and would see growing seasons similar to some of the most productive warm-climate wine-producing regions. The authors consider the opportunities and challenges presented by the potential climate shift for cool-climate and warm-climate viticultural regions.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Steven R. Schultze, schultze@southalabama.edu
Save
  • Adams, M. Q., 2006: Nautical wine tourism: A strategic plan to create a nautical wine trail in the Finger Lakes wine tourism region of New York State. Global Wine Tourism: Research, Management and Marketing, CAB International, 227–241.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Allan, R. P., and B. J. Soden, 2008: Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science, 321, 14811484, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160787.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Andresen, J. A., and J. A. Winkler, 2009: Weather and climate. Michigan Geography and Geology, R. J. Schaetzl, J. T. Darden, and D. S. Brandt, Eds., Pearson, 288–314.

  • Andresen, J. A., S. Hilberg, K. Kunkel, and M. R. C. Center, 2012: Historical climate and climate trends in the Midwestern USA. U.S. National Climate Assessment Midwest Tech. Input Rep., 18 pp.

  • Aono, Y., and K. Kazui, 2008: Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and its application to reconstruction of springtime temperatures since the 9th century. Int. J. Climatol., 28, 905914, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1594.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Assel, R. A., D. C. Norton, and K. C. Cronk, 2002: A Great Lakes ice cover digital data set for winters 1973-2000. NOAA Tech. Memo. GLERL-121, 46 pp., https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/glerl-121/tm-121.pdf.

  • Assel, R. A., J. Wang, A. H. Clites, and X. Bai, 2013: Analysis of Great Lakes ice cover climatology: Winters 2006-2011. NOAA Tech. Memo. GLERL-171, 25 pp.

  • Bock, A., T. Sparks, N. Estrella, and A. Menzel, 2011: Changes in the phenology and composition of wine from Franconia, Germany. Climate Res., 50, 6981, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01048.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bonfante, A., E. Monaco, G. Langella, P. Mercogliano, E. Bucchignani, P. Manna, and F. Terribile, 2018: A dynamic viticultural zoning to explore the resilience of terroir concept under climate change. Sci. Total Environ., 624, 294308, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.035.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chang, H., and I. W. Jung, 2010: Spatial and temporal changes in runoff caused by climate change in a complex large river basin in Oregon. J. Hydrol., 388, 186207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.04.040.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cook, B. I., and E. M. Wolkovich, 2016: Climate change decouples drought from early wine grape harvests in France. Nat. Climate Change, 6, 715, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2960.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dunn, M. R., J. A. Lindesay, and M. Howden, 2015: Spatial and temporal scales of future climate information for climate change adaptation in viticulture: A case study of user needs in the Australian winegrape sector. Aust. J. Grape Wine Res., 21, 226239, https://doi.org/10.1111/ajgw.12138.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Easterling, D. R., G. A. Meehl, C. Parmesan, S. A. Changnon, T. R. Karl, and L. O. Mearns, 2000: Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289, 20682074, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5487.2068.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fischer, E. M., and R. Knutti, 2015: Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes. Nat. Climate Change, 5, 560, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2617.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fraga, H., A. C. Malheiro, J. Moutinho-Pereira, and J. A. Santos, 2012: An overview of climate change impacts on European viticulture. Food Energy Secur., 1, 94110, https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.14.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fronzek, S., and T. R. Carter, 2007: Assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts on resource potential for Europe based on projections from RCMs and GCMs. Climatic Change, 81, 357371, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9214-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Geiger, R., 1965: The Climate near the Ground. Harvard University Press, 600 pp.

  • Gladstones, J., 1992: Viticulture and Environment. Winetitles, 310 pp.

  • Hall, A., and G. V. Jones, 2009: Effect of potential atmospheric warming on temperature-based indices describing Australian winegrape growing conditions. Aust. J. Grape Wine Res., 15, 97119, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-0238.2008.00035.x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hannah, L., and Coauthors, 2013: Climate change, wine, and conservation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 69076912, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1210127110.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hayhoe, K., and Coauthors, 2008: Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA. Mitig. Adapt. Strategies Global Change, 13, 425436, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-007-9133-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Holland, T., and B. Smit, 2014: Recent climate change in the Prince Edward County winegrowing region, Ontario, Canada: Implications for adaptation in a fledgling wine industry. Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 11091121, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0555-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Howell, G. S., 2001: Sustainable grape productivity and the growth-yield relationship: A review. Amer. J. Enol. Vitic., 52, 165174.

  • Hunter, J. J., and V. Bonnardot, 2011: Suitability of some climatic parameters for grapevine cultivation in South Africa, with focus on key physiological processes. S. Afr. J. Enol. Vitic., 32, 137154, https://doi.org/10.21548/32-1-1374.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jones, G. V., and R. E. Davis, 2000: Climate influences on grapevine phenology, grape composition, and wine production and quality for Bordeaux, France. Amer. J. Enol. Vitic., 51, 249261.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jones, G. V., and G. B. Goodrich, 2008: Influence of climate variability on wine regions in the western USA and on wine quality in the Napa Valley. Climate Res., 35, 241254, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00708.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jones, G. V., M. A. White, O. R. Cooper, and K. Storchmann, 2005: Climate change and global wine quality. Climatic Change, 73, 319343, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-4704-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jones, G. V., A. A. Duff, A. Hall, and J. W. Myers, 2010: Spatial analysis of climate in winegrape growing regions in the western United States. Amer. J. Enol. Vitic., 61, 313326.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keller, M., 2010: The Science of Grapevines: Anatomy and Physiology. Academic Press, 400 pp.

  • Köppen, W., 1900: Versuch einer Klassifikation der Klimate, vorzugsweise nach ihren Beziehungen zur Pflanzenwelt. Geogr. Z., 6, 593–611.

  • Liang, X. Z., J. Pan, J. Zhu, K. E. Kunkel, J. X. Wang, and A. Dai, 2006: Regional climate model downscaling of the U.S. summer climate and future change. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D10108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006685.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Meier, M., J. Fuhrer, and A. Holzkämper, 2018: Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley. Int. J. Biometeor., 62, 9911002, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1501-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Molitor, D., A. Caffarra, P. Sinigoj, I. Pertot, L. Hoffmann, and J. Junk, 2014: Late frost damage risk for viticulture under future climate conditions: A case study for the Luxembourgish winegrowing region. Aust. J. Grape Wine Res., 20, 160168, https://doi.org/10.1111/ajgw.12059.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Newman, J. L., 1992: Decline and development in the Finger Lakes wine region of New York State. J. Wine Res., 3, 7995, https://doi.org/10.1080/09571269208717922.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rasmussen, R., and C. Liu, 2017: High resolution WRF simulations of the current and future climate of North America. NCAR Research Data Archive, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, accessed 6 January 2018, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6V40SXP.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Riahi, K., A. Grübler, and N. Nakicenovic, 2007: Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change, 74, 887935, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.026.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rigby, J. R., and A. Porporato, 2008: Spring frost risk in a changing climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033955.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ruml, M., and Coauthors, 2012: On the use of regional climate models: Implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia. Agric. For. Meteor., 158, 5362, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.02.004.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sabbatini, P., and G. S. Howell, 2010: Effects of early defoliation on yield, fruit composition and harvest season cluster rot complex of grapevines. HortScience, 45, 18041808, https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTSCI.45.12.1804.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schultz, H., 2000: Climate change and viticulture: A European perspective on climatology, carbon dioxide and UV-B effects. Aust. J. Grape Wine Res., 6, 212, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-0238.2000.tb00156.x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schultze, S. R., P. Sabbatini, and J. A. Andresen, 2014: Spatial and temporal study of climatic variability on grape production in southwestern Michigan. Amer. J. Enol. Vitic., 65, 179188, https://doi.org/10.5344/ajev.2013.13063.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schultze, S. R., P. Sabbatini, and L. Luo, 2016a: Interannual effects of early season growing degree day accumulation and frost in the cool climate viticulture of Michigan. Ann. Assoc. Amer. Geogr., 106, 975989, https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2016.1171129.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schultze, S. R., P. Sabbatini, and L. Luo, 2016b: Effects of a warming trend on cool climate viticulture in Michigan, USA. SpringerPlus, 5, 1119, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-2777-1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sommers, B. J., 2008: The Geography of Wine: How Landscapes, Cultures, Terroir, and the Weather Make a Good Drop. Penguin, 304 pp.

  • Stock, M., F. W. Gerstengarbe, T. Kartschall, and P. C. Werner, 2004: Reliability of climate change impact assessments for viticulture. VII International Symposium on Grapevine Physiology and Biotechnology, L. E. Williams, Ed., ISHS Acta Horticulturae 689, 29–40.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Tian, B., and Coauthors, 2017: Development of a model performance metric and its application to assess summer precipitation over the U.S. Great Plains in downscaled climate simulations. J. Hydrometeor., 18, 27812799, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0045.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • van Leeuwen, C., P. Friant, X. Choné, O. Tregoat, S. Koundouras, and D. Dubourdieu, 2004: Influence of climate, soil, and cultivar on terroir. Amer. J. Enol. Vitic., 55, 207217.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Van Vuuren, D., P. Edmonds, J. Kainuma, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, K. Hibbard, and S. K. Rose, 2011: The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change, 109, 531, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Webb, L. B., 2006: The impact of projected greenhouse gas-induced climate change on the Australian wine industry. Doctoral dissertation, University of Melbourne, 277 pp.

  • Webb, L. B., P. H. Whetton, J. Bhend, R. Darbyshire, P. R. Briggs, and E. W. R. Barlow, 2012: Earlier wine-grape ripening driven by climatic warming and drying and management practices. Nat. Climate Change, 2, 259264, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1417.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • White, M. A., N. S. Diffenbaugh, G. V. Jones, J. S. Pal, and F. Giorgi, 2006: Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 11 21711 222, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0603230103.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zabadal, T., and J. A. Andresen, 1997: Vineyard establishment I: Site selection, vineyard design, obtaining grapevines, and site preparation. Michigan State University Extension Bull. E-2644, 23 pp.

  • Zabadal, T., I. Dami, M. Goffinet, T. Martinson, and M. Chien, 2007: Winter injury to grapevines and methods of protection. Michigan State University Extension Bull. E2930, 105 pp.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1906 431 36
PDF Downloads 1430 283 18