Ecological Water Stress under Projected Climate Change across Hydroclimate Gradients in the North-Central United States

Arjun Adhikari Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana

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Andrew J. Hansen Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana

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Imtiaz Rangwala North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado

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Abstract

Water balance influences the distribution, abundance, and diversity of plant species across Earth’s terrestrial system. In this study, we examine changes in the water balance and, consequently, the dryland extent across eight ecoregions of the north-central United States by quantifying changes in the growing season (May–September) moisture index (MI) by 2071–99, relative to 1980–2005, under three high-resolution (~4 km) downscaled climate projections (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR) of high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5). We find that all ecoregions are projected to become drier as based on significant decreases in MI, except four ecoregions under CNRM-CM5, which projects relatively more moderate warming and much greater increases in precipitation relative to the other two projections. The mean projected MI across the entire study area changes by from +4% to −33%. The proportion of dryland (MI < 0.65) is projected to increase under all projections, but more significantly under the warmer and drier projections represented by CCSM4 and IPSL-CM5A-MR; these two projections also show the largest spatial increases in the arid (33%–53%) and hyperarid (135%–180%) dryland classes and the greatest decrease in the dry subhumid (from −56% to −88%) dryland class. Among the ecoregions, those in the semiarid class have the highest increase in potential evapotranspiration, those in the nondryland and dry subhumid class have the largest decrease in MI, and those in the dry subhumid class have the greatest increase in dryland extent. These changes are expected to have important implications for agriculture, ecological function, biodiversity, vegetation dynamics, and hydrological budget.

Current affiliation: Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Arjun Adhikari, arjun.adhikari@okstate.edu

Abstract

Water balance influences the distribution, abundance, and diversity of plant species across Earth’s terrestrial system. In this study, we examine changes in the water balance and, consequently, the dryland extent across eight ecoregions of the north-central United States by quantifying changes in the growing season (May–September) moisture index (MI) by 2071–99, relative to 1980–2005, under three high-resolution (~4 km) downscaled climate projections (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR) of high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5). We find that all ecoregions are projected to become drier as based on significant decreases in MI, except four ecoregions under CNRM-CM5, which projects relatively more moderate warming and much greater increases in precipitation relative to the other two projections. The mean projected MI across the entire study area changes by from +4% to −33%. The proportion of dryland (MI < 0.65) is projected to increase under all projections, but more significantly under the warmer and drier projections represented by CCSM4 and IPSL-CM5A-MR; these two projections also show the largest spatial increases in the arid (33%–53%) and hyperarid (135%–180%) dryland classes and the greatest decrease in the dry subhumid (from −56% to −88%) dryland class. Among the ecoregions, those in the semiarid class have the highest increase in potential evapotranspiration, those in the nondryland and dry subhumid class have the largest decrease in MI, and those in the dry subhumid class have the greatest increase in dryland extent. These changes are expected to have important implications for agriculture, ecological function, biodiversity, vegetation dynamics, and hydrological budget.

Current affiliation: Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Arjun Adhikari, arjun.adhikari@okstate.edu
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