Goodness of Fit of a Markov Chain Model for Sequences of Wet and Dry Days

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  • 1 Kansas State University, Manhattan
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Abstract

Evidence from locations in the north central region of the United States indicates that a rainy spell is more likely to terminate after at least two wet days than after one wet day during early spring. However, the departure from a first-order Markov chain model has only minor effects when estimating probabilities of specified sequences of wet and dry days.

Abstract

Evidence from locations in the north central region of the United States indicates that a rainy spell is more likely to terminate after at least two wet days than after one wet day during early spring. However, the departure from a first-order Markov chain model has only minor effects when estimating probabilities of specified sequences of wet and dry days.

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