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Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate

Meagan CarneyaUniversity of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia

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Holger KantzbMax Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany

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Matthew NicolcUniversity of Houston, Houston, Texas

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Abstract

Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum wind speeds. Since extremes in maximum wind speed have a direct relationship with minima in the central pressure, accurate wind speed return estimates rely heavily on proper modeling of the central pressure minima. Using the HURDAT2 database, we show that the central pressure minima of hurricane events can be appropriately modeled by a nonstationary extreme value distribution. We also provide and validate a Poisson distribution with a nonstationary rate parameter to model returns of hurricane events. Using our nonstationary models and numerical simulation techniques from established literature, we perform a simulation study to model returns of maximum wind speeds of hurricane events along the North Atlantic coast. We show that our revised model agrees with current data and results in an expectation of higher maximum wind speeds for all regions along the coast, with the highest maximum wind speeds occurring along the northeast seaboard.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Meagan Carney, m.carney@uq.edu.au

Abstract

Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum wind speeds. Since extremes in maximum wind speed have a direct relationship with minima in the central pressure, accurate wind speed return estimates rely heavily on proper modeling of the central pressure minima. Using the HURDAT2 database, we show that the central pressure minima of hurricane events can be appropriately modeled by a nonstationary extreme value distribution. We also provide and validate a Poisson distribution with a nonstationary rate parameter to model returns of hurricane events. Using our nonstationary models and numerical simulation techniques from established literature, we perform a simulation study to model returns of maximum wind speeds of hurricane events along the North Atlantic coast. We show that our revised model agrees with current data and results in an expectation of higher maximum wind speeds for all regions along the coast, with the highest maximum wind speeds occurring along the northeast seaboard.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Meagan Carney, m.carney@uq.edu.au
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