Abstract
Statistical analysis methods are developed to quantify the impacts of multiple forcing variables on the hydrographic variability within an estuary instrumented with an enduring observational system. The methods are applied to characterize the salinity variability within Apalachicola Bay, a shallow multiple-inlet estuary along the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast. The 13-yr multivariate time series collected by the National Estuary Research Reserve at three locations within the bay are analyzed to determine how the estuary responds to variations in external forcing mechanisms, such as freshwater discharge, precipitation, tides, and local winds at multiple time scales. The analysis methods are used to characterize the estuarine variability under differing flow regimes of the Apalachicola River, a managed waterway, with particular focus on extreme events and scales of variability that are critical to local ecosystems. Multivariate statistical models are applied that describe the salinity response to winds from multiple directions, river flow, and precipitation at daily, weekly, and monthly time scales to understand the response of the estuary under different climate regimes. Results show that the salinity is particularly sensitive to river discharge and wind magnitude and direction, with local precipitation being largely unimportant. Applying statistical analyses with conditional sampling quantifies how the likelihoods of high-salinity and long-duration high-salinity events, conditions of critical importance to estuarine organisms, change given the state of the river flow. Intraday salinity range is shown to be negatively correlated with the salinity, and correlated with river discharge rate.
